<link rel="stylesheet" href="//fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Open+Sans%3A400italic%2C700italic%2C400%2C700">Manmohan Singh Archives « Aam JanataSkip to content

1

So a few days ago,anonymous hackers calling themselves "Legion" hacked Rahul Gandhi's Twitter account and made profane tweets from it.

Anonymous legion hackers then compromised the official Congress handle and other accounts, all of them with official inc.in email IDs.

Yesterday, the anonymous hackers calling themselves "Legion" hacked Barkha Dutt's Twitter account

followed by Ravish Kumar's.

The group of hackers made a tweet claiming not to be affiliated with the BJP.

Which is all very excellent, except there are some very good reasons to believe that the hackers could indeed be affiliated with the BJP. And BJP has a long history of its fronts being "apolitical" or "not-affiliated", going right back to a notable event I attended in 2009 or 2010 (I forget), organized by "Friends of BJP" - which claimed to be an apolitical group. Countless Hindu Sena this that and the other variants have conveniently popped up to attack targets of BJP at opportune moments and vanished into obscurity.

India Against Corruption ran a nationwide protest against the previous government. An "apolitical" organization, that just happened to be amply funded by the RSS, included plenty of BJP affiliated public figures, AND had protests happening in front of every BJP office, was... apolitical.

For that matter, the RSS itself, whose members form a large part of the government and who gets foreign funds for rescue and social work, but managed to put LAKHS of its workers on the streets campaigning for BJP's Lok Sabha electoral campaign is.... (you guessed it by now) an apolitical, cultural organization. I hope you get my drift. If it walks like a BJP affiliate, acts like a BJP affiliate, quacks like a BJP affiliate AND it claims to be apolitical...

A heads up by the BJP insider handle

A handle calling itself "BJP insider" had tweeted in July that BJP's IT cell had recruited professional hackers to hack and suspend accounts causing problems to boss (Modi) on Twitter and Facebook. This handle has been around for a couple of years at least and consistently tweets what it claims is the scuttlebutt around BJP headquarters.

By itself, it may not mean much, as several months had passed. Or it could mean a lot. Who knows. It is hardly like BJP has never hired people to do their dirty work online.

Rumors of targeting of political opponents and critics being planned

After the second week of demonetistion, there were several rumors that BJP had plans to target political opponents in various ways. The manner in which they circulated and the variety of actions being suggested as possible don't suggest a single source.

Also some deliberate events happening to discredit conspicuous critics of the demonetisation gave credibility to the rumors. For example, the most popular one expected was Income Tax raids on people. However the "false alarm" with Mamata Banerjee as well as ex-Prime Minister Manmohan Singh under investigation for a scam within days of a powerful speech and article pointing out concerns about demonetisation certainly raise questions about the timing.

The targets of the hacks

All the identities targeted are top targets of BJP's online troll gangs. Both individuals and organizations. Incidentally, once this was raised, @Joydas was among the first to comment that a token BJP hack would happen. And it did. No undesirable tweets got posted and a large "dump" of their database was apparently put up that no one seems to have downloaded (because the hotshots basically DoSed their own server with it, looks like). What is in it could be anyone's guess. But given the complete lack of agitation in the bhakts normally frenzied about the slightest adverse development, it is difficult to believe this to be an adverse development.

Symptoms of BJP's photoshop industry at work

Screenshots posted of what appears to be a transaction notification email to Barkha Dutt from the Standard Chartered bank have two glaring issues.

 

Receipient? Seriously?

Should be recipient, yes? Strange to believe that either Standard Chartered or a mobile application coder good enough to get the interest of a "hacker" would make such a basic mistake. Leads one to question whether the screenshots are real. It wouldn't be the first time the BJP's photoshop department threw up an "original" document, only to reveal themselves with atrocious spelling mistakes (entire political science, anyone?)

Standard Chartered seems particularly lazy about sending notifications

When is the last time you received bank notification of  transaction a day after it happened? And that too for what would apparently be a VIP account given the balances claimed. And no, there doesn't seem to be the possibility of a transaction done just before midnight and notified after midnight, given that this is the afternoon of the next day.

What email application is it anyway?

While I admit I didn't search very hard, I did employ the assistance of google search. The only match anywhere in applications seems to be one called "fake text messenger" - unless of course the hacker built their own email app or has something obscure. Or it may be some custom OS - who knows, maybe will help cops trace the phone.

What navigation is that anyway?

There doesn't seem to be any "menu" provided for this "email". Back arrow next to the icon one can understand - goes back to the archive. Where would an arrow pointing right go? Twitter? :p

No need to delete, archive, etc and reply is out of question of course, given the quality of spellings.

What's that url again?

We have here a banking notification that points to a mobile site at one place and regular site the other. No https (though the url will redirect). Who in the world points to mobile sites in notification emails in the age of autodetection? Probably "hackers" who hack using mobile phones. Either they are very very good or nowhere near the server, given how tricky mobiles can be.

Whoever has seen an email from a bank that ends like this?

No disclaimer text "this is an automated email blah blah blah" What to do if you've got a notification for a transaction you didn't do, etc. No support email... No sign off... really? With half the email being an overlap, unlikely they had to cut it off for space.

Though in all honesty, I don't have a Standard Chartered account, and they may have the casual approach to notifications. If you do have a Standard Chartered account, do me a favor and send me a screenshot of a notification (blurring as appropriate) on Twitter? My handle is @Vidyut

And well, finally... what the hacker chooses to see or ignore

Some emails supposedly "leaked" by the hacker are like total Kashmir Pakistan obsession. I mean seriously, a politically indifferent hacker gets into a big journo's account, and all he can find is emails on Kashmir? ok.

Really? REALLY?

This is probably the first when a hacker out to "expose" missed actionable information (or even to seek it, looks like, if this is the highlight of the hack). For that matter, it could be anyone's inbox.

Worldclass hackers, put up a 98MB download with piddly bandwidth, DoSed their own expose? Hilarious. I suppose by the time the traffic goes down, BJP will have it taken down as "action taken".

If you can download the files they have posted, I would highly recommend you not do so unless you know what you are doing and have secured your machine appropriately. If you have to ask how to, don't.

Maybe it is possible that Legion ain't BJP backed. I'll believe it when BJP arrests them. Surely an attack on a political party, account of an MP and journalists - who have protected sources who could be at risk - warrants investigation and arrests right? So let us see.

5

As the magic 49 number of days of Modi sarkar comes to a close, it has been a good journey. Looking back at some of the hilarious points of what is fast coming to be known as the U-Turn sarkar.

Should India be entertaining Pakistani VIPs if there is conflict at the border?

That is how the Modi sarkar began. Before, Modi had only contempt for Manmohan Singh's sarkar that apparently did not retaliate strongly enough to Indian soldiers being killed at the border. That too, in Telugu, it seems.

Modi blasts Manmohan Singh for taking killings at the LoC lightly
Modi blasts Manmohan Singh for taking killings at the LoC lightly

Modi himself had refused the evil Pakistanis in a massive demonstration of patriotic solidarity. Little did Dr. Manmohan Singh know that when people say his silence was a problem, they mean it. He could have tried something as simple as inviting Pakistan's Prime Minister for an important national function. Like so:

Modi on LoC conflicts and relations with Pakistan before and after
Modi on LoC conflicts and relations with Pakistan before and after

Or perhaps I may be wrong, and this may not be a patriotic move so much as the first installment on the election campaign expenses. Even as the poor beheaded jawan's wife was protesting. Sometimes greater good has to be seen.

Modi's sponsor Adani wants to sell power to Pakistan
Modi's sponsor Adani wants to sell power to Pakistan

But at least Modi was right about the other borders I think. Illegal Bangladeshis are such a nuisance. Modi was right to threaten to deport them

Bangladeshis were to be deported before elections
Bangladeshis were to be deported before elections

 

but there is a problem. After all, he'd just invited their Prime Minister for his coronation. So he at least tried to get rid of the "illegal" from it, if not deporting.

Visa-free entry to Bangladeshis under 18 years and over 65 years
Visa-free entry to Bangladeshis under 18 years and over 65 years

The solution was so simple, one must really wonder why Dr. Mannu never thought of it. Simply allow them visa free entry - voila! Now they can stay where they are legally!!!

This Modi sarkar is pure genius, I tell you.

What about that evil Gandhi bloodline (excluding the pure blood of Varun Gandhi, BJP). Dr. Subramanian Swamy had Priyanka Gandhi red handed. Multiple DINs! That evil witch and that Karti Chidambaram!!!

 

Appropriately terrified, Priyanka Gandhi confessed to making multiple applications and offered to pay the fine (and nicely ignored the jail time, thank you very much).

But wait. That was before. Now that Modi sarkar is in place, the greater efficiency showed that Priyanka Vadra may have applied as many times as she liked, but the super efficient (retrospectively as well) Ministry of Corporate affairs had actually issued her only one DIN. What a DIN about DINs. Just like Nitin Gadkari (No, you can't check now, the extra DINs nicely show "not yet issued" now that a better government is in place.)

Oops! Priyana Vadra and Karti Chidambaram had only one DIN each
Oops! Priyana Vadra and Karti Chidambaram had only one DIN each. Fooled ya!

Modi sarkar had Vadra terrified while UPA2 was in rule.

Vadra security privileges - before
Vadra security privileges - before

Then, as they campaigned, they probably thought a panicked Vadra would fight too hard to defeat them, so they kinda.... reassured.

Action against Vadra or no? Election Campaign
Action against Vadra or no? Election Campaign

And never let it be said BJP goes back on its word. Robert Vadra remains unscathed.

What about Robert Vadra's security exemptions?
What about Robert Vadra's security exemptions?

They had even terrified the couple together. Imagine losing security privileges and having to go through security checks at airports? I bet the couple lost sleepless nights.

Modi Sarkar has brought acche din to the country.

Jaitlet had thought that the Income Tax exemption slab should be raised to 5 lakh before the elections. Now that he got to present the budget, he raised it to 2.5 lakh.

 

What should the IT exemption slab be? Beore and after
What should the IT exemption slab be? Beore and after

Hey! No need to get outraged! If you ignore the decimal point, 25 is five times 5.

What about investments in railways?

Everything perfect on that front. Just watch.

What about the railways? Before and after
What about the railways? Before and after

We have no hesitation in telling you that UPA2 would have totally messed up the privatization of railways and FDI, but now that it is a BJP sarkar and BJP no longer plays dog in the manger with the government, many things that UPA2 wanted to do are now possible without BJP staging a walkout against itself.

Still not convinced? You are a cynical sickular. Try this.

Modi railway hike before and after
Modi railway hike before and after

Oh wait. I meant this.

uday-lalit-amit-shah-after

Amazing, isn't it, the things you can do when you can get a dozen newspapers to publish near identical articles without sources that can push things that happened before the election aside? Like this one?

Did Uday Lalit represent Amit Shah? Before
Did Uday Lalit represent Amit Shah? Before

There are many, many such gems. And you cannot blame BJP. After all, they have delivered the only real promise they made before the election - Modi as PM. To avoid confusion, they even avoided publishing a manifesto as far as possible.

So you really cannot claim that they cannot do U-Turns.

Welcome to the opening innings of U-Turn sarkar. May the remaining period be as hilarious as so far... and may worries about the country never plague your dazzled brain.

Note: This post actually has a lot of things missing (mostly because I got tired of doing screenshots). Feel free to nominate your favorites to this collection in the comments. I will update as and when I am back in the mood to play screenshot-screenshot.

Some ideas to get you started. Google up what Jaitley thought about declassifying the Henderson Brooks report on the 1962 war before and after the elections

Arun Jaitley's U-Turn on the Henderson Brooks report on the 1962 war
Arun Jaitley's U-Turn on the Henderson Brooks report on the 1962 war

or Aadhaar cards, or.... you get the idea? Or you could try non-specific U-Turns like strict action against criminal politicians, inflation, using ordinances in non-emergencies and the infamous "Acche Din"!

Let's see what you come up with.

You're welcome.

1

India’s Sovereignty, Security and Freedom at risk-

Is the IB being used by foreign corporations to take over India’s vital seed sector?

The IB report has a special section on GMOs (genetically modified/engineered organisms). It clearly supports the introduction of GM crops into Indian agriculture.

The IB report makes specific mention of the Supreme Court cases which have beenfiled. It curiously also accuses civil society organisations and individuals of influencing 3 Committees that were officially mandated to assess GMOs. The IB report objects to these formal government reports, the Moratorium Orders of Shri Jairam Ramesh, the Parliamentary Standing Committee Report and the Supreme Court-appointed Technical Expert Committee Report (TEC) because they find that on current evidence, GM crops have little to contribute to Indian agriculture, safe food and food security. These findings did not accord with the view of the PMO, when headed by the erstwhile Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh. This report was initiated under the UPA Government.

IB objects to protection of Indian seed and food sovereignty?

In 1998, when Monsanto introduced Bt cotton illegally, without the statutory approvals from the GEAC, we had to file a case in the SC to defend the laws of the land, our Constitution, our Seed Sovereignty and Food Sovereignty. When open field trials were being conducted without appropriate and independent Biosafety assessments, and expertise inthese matters, the current cases in the Supreme Court were initiated in 2003 and 2005 to uphold the law: protect the environment and safety of our seeds and food from irreversible genetic contamination, protect smallholder farming in India, and the health safety of 1 billion citizens. The country faces a major threat from the multinational Seed/chemical industry, seeking control over our seeds, our agriculture and our food. This is the corporate focus. This is their AGENDA. Thousands of organizations and many multiples of thousands of individuals are committed to resisting this unacceptable corporate goal for India.

IB favors the foreign hand in the ‘making of India’s Bt brinjal’:

The IB report quotes a Dr Ronald Herring of Cornell University who promotes GMOs and the monopoly of Monsanto. It is ironic that the IB report relies on the evidence of Dr Herring with his antecedents in Cornell University, a hub of blind GMO promotion. It is the direct foreign hand along with USAID and Monsanto funding, behind the ‘making of India’s Bt brinjal’. Here is a real foreign hand that informs the IB report. Has the IB report been written then with foreign influence, for the benefit and profits of foreign corporations? Thestrategy of the global GMO seed industry with their patents & IPRs (Intellectual Property Rights) is to bend regulation and influence governments and regulators to approve GMOs, by-passing scientific, transparent and independent safety testing.

Outrageous insult to our Parliamentarians and Contempt of Court by the IB:

The PSC recommended a high-level enquiry into how Bt brinjal was approved by the Regulators for commercial release. The self-assessed safety-dossier by Mahyco-Monsanto was a cover-up as evidenced in independent assessments of the raw data by several leading international scientists.  It staggers belief that the IB find it possible to hand out an outrageous insult to the Parliamentary Standing Committee, by suggesting  that they have in effect been led ‘by the nose’ by activists and civil society groups and have no competence to address their official mandate on the subject. It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the IB report has been influenced by those who have most to gain by undermining our seed and food sovereignty ie. the foreign corporations.

The IB report has also attacked the government decision made under our Biosafety laws to impose a moratorium on Bt Brinjal. It is thus attacking our Biosafety. This will only suit foreign interests.

The IB is guilty of contempt of court since it attacks the Technical Expert Committee set up by the Supreme Court to look into the issues of GMOs and Biosafety. The case is still being heard.

The IB fails to refer to the important other official report, the ‘Sopory Committee Report’. This report of 2012 commissioned by the Ministry of Agriculture itself is a stinging commentary on what is wrong with GMO regulation in India. Ourregulatory institutions and the MoA have been indicted in this report for lies, fraud and lacking GMO expertise. And the truth with regard to massive contamination was revealed in this report.

NGOs saving Indian seed and food sovereignty:

The biggest foreign hand by STEALTH and official COVER-UP will be in GMOs/GM crops if introduced into Indian agriculture. All that stands between a corporate takeover of our seeds and agriculture is the committed and exemplary work by the not-for-profit sector that helped create an informed debate on GMOs and has postponed, even stopped government action from introducing them for over 15 years.  In conspiring with deeply conflicted institutions of regulation, governance and agriculture, of which there is incontrovertible proof, to introduce GM crops into India, the IB will in fact aid the hand-over of the ownership of our seeds and foods to Multi-NationalCorporations. This will represent the largest take-over of any nation’s agriculture and future development by foreign-hands and this time it will be no bogey foreign hand. This will be for real.  China is on record as saying that she will not allow her armed forces to eat any GM food. This not-to-be-imagined future will plunge India into the biggest breach of internal security; of a biosecurity threat and food security crisis from which we will never recover. The fallout of this mere 20 year-old laboratory technology is, that it is irreversible. This is what must give us sober ‘food for thought’ uncontaminated by GMOs, something the IB seems to be supremely oblivious of. GM crops have already demonstrated no yield gain, no ability to engineer for traits of drought, saline resistance etc and have some  serious bio-safety issues which no regulator wishes  to examine.

Indian Cotton in Foreign Hands, Indian farmers’ hard earned money expatriated to foreign lands:

India’s Bt cotton is an outstanding example of the above scenario. It was introduced into India’s hybrids, not varieties so our farmers would be forced to buy seeds each year. This ‘VALUE CAPTURE’ for Monsanto which was contrived and approved by our own government mortgaging the public interest has ensured that in a short 10 years, 95% of cotton seeds in the form of Bt cotton are owned by Monsanto. The damage to India’s organic cotton market and status is significant. India is the largest organic cotton producer/exporter in the world. It is Monsanto now that decides where cotton should be planted and when by our farmers, a role that the MoA has absconded or been eliminated from. The Royalties accruing to Monsanto that have been expatriated are approximately Rs 4800 Crores in 12 years,   (excludingother profit mark-ups). What would this figure be if GMOs and propriety seeds flooded our farms without Biosafety assessment and regulation? This is the arithmetic the IB should have done, instead of throwing an arbitrary figure of 2-3% loss of growth. The IB is thus conspiring with global corporate interests to hemorrhage India’s agricultural economy. More than 284000 Indian farmers have been pushed to suicide because of a debt trap, lack of government investment in smallholder farming and dependence on non-renewable, propriety seeds and chemicals sold by the corporations. We call for an investigation on the foreign influence in writing the GMO section in the IB report.

If India's intelligence agencies become instruments of global corporations working against the public interest and national interest of India, our national security is under threat.

This IB report is deeply anti-national and subversive of constitutional rights of citizens in our country.  It does India nocredit.

Signed:

 Vandana Shiva,               Aruna Rodrigues,                Kavitha Kuruganti

Navdanya

8100 25169                       98263 96033                         9393001550

1

Wanting a lean cabinet is one thing, but the selection of ministers does not invoke confidence.

Narendra Modi will be handling Personnel, Public Grievances and Pensions, Department of Atomic Energy and Department of Space. Given the secretive nature of India's nuclear establishment, and the very serious apprehensions regarding several existing and proposed nuclear plants, the ability and intent of Modi to demand and examine accountability and risks with regard to safety rather than merely push for more nuclear plants becomes paramount. I don't know if it exists. If he puts his mind to it, I imagine it will be a very good thing, but the pollution in Gujarat as well as interest in health doesn't look very promising.

Nitin Gadkari gets Road Transport and Highways! Sheer brilliance. Ideal Road Builders thanks Modi. Like Modi was lucky for Adani, Gadkari was lucky for IRB to the point of giving Gadkari's company interest free loans. There is good money in tolls we hear. Ask the guy who campaigned for Modi who has a habit of vandalizing them.

Arun Jaitley, whose grouse against Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was that he was not elected will control the country's finance, corporate affairs and defense after losing the election he contested in. That too, to a Congress candidate. So, at best, it is a "let us see how he does".

Smriti Irani, who lost the election she contested in as well will be handling HRD, which includes education. Smriti Irani is 12th class pass, as Madhu Kishwar and Ajay Maken pointed out. While, as Swapan Dasgupta said "Someone remind me. Did Rabindranath Tagore go to university? he certainly established one & had enlightened views on education" is true, it doesn't immediately follow that every uneducated person is a potential Rabindranath Tagore who was a polymath, while Smriti Irani hasn't been associated with intellectual pursuits as far as I am aware. Worse, she apparently has lied about her education on an earlier election affidavit. Nor was Rabindranath Tagore given the responsibility of handling the Nation's education and I don't think he'd lie about his qualifications either. I am no educational snob, and I don't necessarily see India's graduations as a qualification, so for me at least, this isn't a minus as much as a wildcard. Not something you know enough about to expect performance.

Uma Bharati, the 6th class pass and with 13 criminal cases against her, and a key player in the Babri Masjid demolition gets Water resources, river development and Ganga Rejuvenation. On the good side, she had been demanding fighting pollution and illegal quarrying on the Ganga. Considering that much of the sand mafia has BJP blessings, she may actually be able to do some good by pulling them up - or covering up... but for all the undesirable qualities, Uma Bharati does not come across as deceitful. I actually respect her for that. So I am hoping for the Ganga at least. Looks like she gets to put her money where her mouth was. I imagine if she gets sentenced in her cases, Modi will do a Maya Kodnani rerun and pretend ignorance.

Sanjeev Balian, Muzafarnagar riots accused, is Minister of State and Modi's second opportunity to claim ignorance in the future if he fails to protect him.

Inderjit Singh Rao, Minister of state for Planning (Independent Charge), Statistics and Programme Implementation (Independent Charge), and Defence had been accused by the BJP in the Kandivli Defense Land Scam. Dr. Kirit Somaiya had called it Adarsh II. Rao Inderjit Singh was then Union Defence Minister of State for Defence Production, and as per Dr. Somaiya, he had directed his personal secretary to ask the military authorities in Mumbai to hand over the defence land to Kalpataru builders. Dr. Somaiya was BJP National Secretary and Chairman Scam Expose Committee for BJP. I assume he wasn't just doing false accusations, right? I suppose doing such things as a part of Congress was the problem. Now that he is BJP, he may proceed? Seriously? Adarsh II is now Adarsh the role model?

Former Army Chief, the controversial V K Singh is Minister of state for the northeast. I can't imagine north east with its serious grievances about the AFSPA will really find a representative in a former army chief, thought the government will likely count on his experience as well as be influenced by his views on the key issue.

I haven't been through whole list yet, but this cabinet looks like putting the cat in charge of guarding the milk. I imagine with no fear of the media and no opposition to name as such, one doesn't really have to bother about election promises of ending corruption and such for another four years at least.

22

Here is how I see the Lok Sabha Elections unfolding. If you want a TL;DR version, we'll be going for this circus all over again, soon. This is merely about where we are headed right now.

If you follow me on Twitter, I've said most of this there already. I was requested to write this post for some reason I can't fathom, but obliging the readers.

Indian National Congress

Not much to say here. They may get seats out of sheer inertia, but they have shown themselves incapable of thinking enough out of their patterns to expect much out of what has royally failed.

After 10 years of a notoriously private leadership, people have no idea what the country's leaders are all about. They do not want more of that, and that is the problem. Rahul Gandhi is trying valiantly to fix this, but it is too little, too late.

The musical chairs with the buck prevents it from stopping anywhere, and while the UPA2 government definitely pulled it off successfully, leaving the citizen too impotent to nail them and get answers, the voiceless people have an unerring instinct to use their voice in the one place it does damage - the polls. They do not want another round of looking foolish for being wronged, because no one has done wrong.

The final nail in the coffin will be the Frankenstein's monster they have unleashed on the country. They HAVE profited by pointing out to the Hindutva extremists and projecting themselves as the only available sane alternative for the country. The monster they were riding has now bucked them off and trampled them and is devouring them alive as they are held immobile.

Bharatiya Janata Party

Yep. The Frankenstein's Monster is growing even as it rots from within. BJP is not going to make an independent government. At best (and extremely unlikely) is an NDA government. I doubt this government will be of adequate strength to impose Modi on the country.

Chances are, Modi may never become an MP. His clinging to his Chief  Minister's chair even at this late date indicates that being Chief Minister of Gujarat and not going into the Parliament is still an option. I imagine Modi will not become an MP if he cannot be PM. He needs the power that comes with the Prime Minister's position (let's forget about Dr. Manmohan Singh for a moment) for major ass covering that is coming his way. When his cases in the Gujarat riots hit the Supreme Court, he is going to need an act (all puns intended) of God that a mere Minister cannot conjure up.

So, for Modi, this is a make or break gig, which currently looks more break than make. If Modi does win, it will be a blow to democracy, but a tribute to his advertizing skills.

The successful winning over of the corporations that formed cartels with UPA has worked well. Whether it is cheap lands, or opaque handshakes, Modi has got the top 1% of corporations in India controlling most of the power to put their eggs in the BJP basket instead of UPA. Where he once had to reach to a foreign firm to make himself look good in spite of relentless Indian media scrutiny, he can count on Indian media to cover up for him now.

That said, the psychological brute force wielded to make this possible has alienated him to many within BJP - particularly the seniors - left allies unsure of where they stand (witness allying with Shiv Sena while rejecting MNS, but getting Raj Thackeray to do a Rakhi Sawant tour of Indian media - where his party has no particular say with regard to National Elections). The sheer amount of stretching of truth that has been needed crumbles on scrutiny, and the development myth shakes at every communal message. The rest is a downhill of tu-tu-main-main, veiled communal threats and massive exhibitions of disregard for Indian constitution and laws. It doesn't help that most things they accuse others of turn out to be true about themselves.

The carpet bombing of the country is based on the new "education products" of adveritzing and management, where you believe that pushing your brand in everyone's face is what gets people to buy it. Unfortunately, for this theory, Parle G is the world's largest selling biscuit, so try guess how much it gets pushed in people's faces. The failure of education that divorces it from observable reality is ironically what will save India this election.

I disagree with Arvind Kejriwal that Modi losing Varanasi will mean that he cannot be PM. If Modi can win Ahmedabad, he will merely use spin doctors and still be PM if NDA can form the government. On the other hand, if NDA cannot form a government, or the Modi lobby cannot convince all allies to make Modi the PM, then even if Modi wins both his seats, he will abdicate both to continue as Chief Minister in Gujarat and opt for a PM whom he can dictate (Rajnath Singh seems to be promoted these days). He entered politics as CM and he will exit it rather than being a part of a team led by someone else.

Even if BJP wins, once this rush of money fades away, the party is going to splinter and bring down the government. The writing is on the wall - which is one of the reasons BJP is opting to install Modi puppets in as many seats as possible, even at the cost of dislodging senior leaders with mass bases - to survive when the fallout starts. Kirron Kher saying that Chandigarh was a seat to win for Modi isn't an accident, this is her highest attraction for the Modi lobby.

Togadia is a supporter of Modi. Ignore the spin doctors. I'll believe Togadia is not a Modi supporter the day he tells people not to vote for Modi or BJP under Modi. Don't hold your breath. Togadia is thrilled at the success of Gujarat riots under Modi and knows well that Modi is now completely dependent on the nuisance value of zealots to stay out of prison. Modi doesn't have to like Togadia to be useful. Witness his complete silence on the communal messages from his party. At best distancing himself and continuing to work to present a development smokescreen. Why in the world would Togadia have a problem with that? He's already said that Gujarat will be a completely Hindu state and Modi pretended not to hear it a week after Modi called for wooing Muslims. Modi calls Togadia's threat against minorities in majority areas as "irresponsible" - not a wrong view to have. Merely a wrong thing to say.

It is the classic good cop, bad cop routine, where both cops are herding you to the same destination. You are disgusted by Togadia? He is Modi's enemy. Voting for Modi is the best way to hit at him. You adore Togadia? Have patience. Gujarat model is growing.

This is basically the complete reinvention of India on the cards and will not happen easily. Unfortunately, with the kind of deals with the devil BJP has done to make it possible, it won't die easily either. One way or the other, India is destined to suffer from the choices already made.

The good news is that parts of the corporate consensus on Modi are hedging their bets. This indicates a possibility that they may not support him beyond the election if he fails - but work with whoever wins. The others remain devoted to Modi. This faction will leverage nuisance value against any non-Modi-led government that forms. A comprehensive defeat of BJP will end this farce. It is unlikely given the kind of money poured in and the sheer diversity of manipulations employed.

A third front

This is possibly the best thing that could happen to India in this stage. A third front with or without a decimated Congress (not with Congress as largest party). It is not looking very concrete at the moment, but given the sheer political splintering in the country, if it doesn't happen now, we might as well forget it.

Aam Aadmi Party

Aam Aadmi Party is the wildcard this elections. It has in its wake a swathe of broken stereotypes and naysayer predictions. It remains to be seen if the skepticism of a media that doesn't even have an entry in its surveys for a party with 450+ candidates joins the debris of the AAP rise.

Given the distortion of news on the Aam Aadmi Party, it is difficult to make an estimation of their impact on the ground, which is probably a good thing, since a poll showing AAP getting very few seats in Delhi (probably doctored) saw a massive wave of media negativity against it in Delhi Assembly Elections. Regardless, news about AAP could be accurate, distorted or reported by AAP themselves resulting in wild fluctuations in terms of its ability to represent what is going on. So cannot get a sense of what their prospects are.

Going by poll surveys, they get between zero to five seats. Others say double digits, which is as disparate as 19 and 99.

If we are to go by the amount of resources BJP has invested in discrediting AAP as a viable option for people (far more than that for discrediting the Congress, which is in theory the real contender and the largest party in country), one would imagine that they are serious competition for BJP - which would put it between 160 seats by my guess and 250 seats by BJP supporter claims. This, of course assumes that BJP spending on hate campaigns is determined by data from campaigning that identifies threat and not random fixation (which is also possible - BJP is not very sane these days - in which case, this source of behavioral data would be useless).

The other part of the AAP threat to BJP of course is that AAP will have ready support from several parties if it chooses to form a government, and it will be out of "cartel control" so to say, since on a National level, AAP will hardly have no alternative except the BJP mirror Congress. Entities that have traditionally allied with BJP have appreciated AAP, including Raj Thackeray and Mamata Banerjee - who had also endorsed their calls for RTI for political parties through ALL MPs from their party. They may not support AAP now, but they have made their appreciation clear in the past, and if AAP is in a position better than those holding their support strings? Who knows? Navin Patnaik, Nitish Kumar, Mayawati have been seen as vaguely hopeful, even. CPI-ML is actually endorsing Kejriwal in Varanasi to aid in defeating Modi. If AAP is in a position to form a government with support, there is going to be no dearth of support, because smaller parties, like the people of India had no real choice beyond BJP-NDA and Congress-UPA either so far. So far AAP claims to be independent, and it genuinely is, when it comes to chasing their manifesto. But this doesn't mean that it won't pull off a Delhi surprise again, particularly if it means keeping both Congress and BJP out of power.

THIS IS THE REAL THREAT OF AAP TO THE POLITICAL CARTELS.

Of course, this is dependent on how many seats AAP gets. It could indeed get five. But the risk is there, because at this stage, no one knows.

But the cartels are taking no risks. In Varanasi at least, it appears as though BJP, Congress and SP are leaving each other alone to target Kejriwal.

Regardless, AAP is unlikely to form a government with a clean majority, and anything less is going to collapse under the nuisance value of cartels who do NOT want AAP to reform their cash cows into oblivion.

AAP should also consider the possibility of supporting a third front if it forms, if it results in Congress and BJP being in opposition. This will create space for reforms that allow more action against political cartels.

It will also provide some stability aganst the combined nuisance value of the two biggest parties and their owners

This is basically stuff I've said on Twitter over time. No idea why people want me to put it all in one place. I'm neither an "expert" nor using real statistics. Merely observing nuances that indicate what may really be happening.

Might be interesting to check back in a month, though 😀