Here is how I see the Lok Sabha Elections unfolding. If you want a TL;DR version, we’ll be going for this circus all over again, soon. This is merely about where we are headed right now.
If you follow me on Twitter, I’ve said most of this there already. I was requested to write this post for some reason I can’t fathom, but obliging the readers.
Indian National Congress
Not much to say here. They may get seats out of sheer inertia, but they have shown themselves incapable of thinking enough out of their patterns to expect much out of what has royally failed.
After 10 years of a notoriously private leadership, people have no idea what the country’s leaders are all about. They do not want more of that, and that is the problem. Rahul Gandhi is trying valiantly to fix this, but it is too little, too late.
The musical chairs with the buck prevents it from stopping anywhere, and while the UPA2 government definitely pulled it off successfully, leaving the citizen too impotent to nail them and get answers, the voiceless people have an unerring instinct to use their voice in the one place it does damage – the polls. They do not want another round of looking foolish for being wronged, because no one has done wrong.
The final nail in the coffin will be the Frankenstein’s monster they have unleashed on the country. They HAVE profited by pointing out to the Hindutva extremists and projecting themselves as the only available sane alternative for the country. The monster they were riding has now bucked them off and trampled them and is devouring them alive as they are held immobile.
Bharatiya Janata Party
Yep. The Frankenstein’s Monster is growing even as it rots from within. BJP is not going to make an independent government. At best (and extremely unlikely) is an NDA government. I doubt this government will be of adequate strength to impose Modi on the country.
Chances are, Modi may never become an MP. His clinging to his Chief Minister’s chair even at this late date indicates that being Chief Minister of Gujarat and not going into the Parliament is still an option. I imagine Modi will not become an MP if he cannot be PM. He needs the power that comes with the Prime Minister’s position (let’s forget about Dr. Manmohan Singh for a moment) for major ass covering that is coming his way. When his cases in the Gujarat riots hit the Supreme Court, he is going to need an act (all puns intended) of God that a mere Minister cannot conjure up.
So, for Modi, this is a make or break gig, which currently looks more break than make. If Modi does win, it will be a blow to democracy, but a tribute to his advertizing skills.
The successful winning over of the corporations that formed cartels with UPA has worked well. Whether it is cheap lands, or opaque handshakes, Modi has got the top 1% of corporations in India controlling most of the power to put their eggs in the BJP basket instead of UPA. Where he once had to reach to a foreign firm to make himself look good in spite of relentless Indian media scrutiny, he can count on Indian media to cover up for him now.
That said, the psychological brute force wielded to make this possible has alienated him to many within BJP – particularly the seniors – left allies unsure of where they stand (witness allying with Shiv Sena while rejecting MNS, but getting Raj Thackeray to do a Rakhi Sawant tour of Indian media – where his party has no particular say with regard to National Elections). The sheer amount of stretching of truth that has been needed crumbles on scrutiny, and the development myth shakes at every communal message. The rest is a downhill of tu-tu-main-main, veiled communal threats and massive exhibitions of disregard for Indian constitution and laws. It doesn’t help that most things they accuse others of turn out to be true about themselves.
The carpet bombing of the country is based on the new “education products” of adveritzing and management, where you believe that pushing your brand in everyone’s face is what gets people to buy it. Unfortunately, for this theory, Parle G is the world’s largest selling biscuit, so try guess how much it gets pushed in people’s faces. The failure of education that divorces it from observable reality is ironically what will save India this election.
I disagree with Arvind Kejriwal that Modi losing Varanasi will mean that he cannot be PM. If Modi can win Ahmedabad, he will merely use spin doctors and still be PM if NDA can form the government. On the other hand, if NDA cannot form a government, or the Modi lobby cannot convince all allies to make Modi the PM, then even if Modi wins both his seats, he will abdicate both to continue as Chief Minister in Gujarat and opt for a PM whom he can dictate (Rajnath Singh seems to be promoted these days). He entered politics as CM and he will exit it rather than being a part of a team led by someone else.
Even if BJP wins, once this rush of money fades away, the party is going to splinter and bring down the government. The writing is on the wall – which is one of the reasons BJP is opting to install Modi puppets in as many seats as possible, even at the cost of dislodging senior leaders with mass bases – to survive when the fallout starts. Kirron Kher saying that Chandigarh was a seat to win for Modi isn’t an accident, this is her highest attraction for the Modi lobby.
Togadia is a supporter of Modi. Ignore the spin doctors. I’ll believe Togadia is not a Modi supporter the day he tells people not to vote for Modi or BJP under Modi. Don’t hold your breath. Togadia is thrilled at the success of Gujarat riots under Modi and knows well that Modi is now completely dependent on the nuisance value of zealots to stay out of prison. Modi doesn’t have to like Togadia to be useful. Witness his complete silence on the communal messages from his party. At best distancing himself and continuing to work to present a development smokescreen. Why in the world would Togadia have a problem with that? He’s already said that Gujarat will be a completely Hindu state and Modi pretended not to hear it a week after Modi called for wooing Muslims. Modi calls Togadia’s threat against minorities in majority areas as “irresponsible” – not a wrong view to have. Merely a wrong thing to say.
It is the classic good cop, bad cop routine, where both cops are herding you to the same destination. You are disgusted by Togadia? He is Modi’s enemy. Voting for Modi is the best way to hit at him. You adore Togadia? Have patience. Gujarat model is growing.
This is basically the complete reinvention of India on the cards and will not happen easily. Unfortunately, with the kind of deals with the devil BJP has done to make it possible, it won’t die easily either. One way or the other, India is destined to suffer from the choices already made.
The good news is that parts of the corporate consensus on Modi are hedging their bets. This indicates a possibility that they may not support him beyond the election if he fails – but work with whoever wins. The others remain devoted to Modi. This faction will leverage nuisance value against any non-Modi-led government that forms. A comprehensive defeat of BJP will end this farce. It is unlikely given the kind of money poured in and the sheer diversity of manipulations employed.
A third front
This is possibly the best thing that could happen to India in this stage. A third front with or without a decimated Congress (not with Congress as largest party). It is not looking very concrete at the moment, but given the sheer political splintering in the country, if it doesn’t happen now, we might as well forget it.
Aam Aadmi Party
Aam Aadmi Party is the wildcard this elections. It has in its wake a swathe of broken stereotypes and naysayer predictions. It remains to be seen if the skepticism of a media that doesn’t even have an entry in its surveys for a party with 450+ candidates joins the debris of the AAP rise.
Given the distortion of news on the Aam Aadmi Party, it is difficult to make an estimation of their impact on the ground, which is probably a good thing, since a poll showing AAP getting very few seats in Delhi (probably doctored) saw a massive wave of media negativity against it in Delhi Assembly Elections. Regardless, news about AAP could be accurate, distorted or reported by AAP themselves resulting in wild fluctuations in terms of its ability to represent what is going on. So cannot get a sense of what their prospects are.
Going by poll surveys, they get between zero to five seats. Others say double digits, which is as disparate as 19 and 99.
If we are to go by the amount of resources BJP has invested in discrediting AAP as a viable option for people (far more than that for discrediting the Congress, which is in theory the real contender and the largest party in country), one would imagine that they are serious competition for BJP – which would put it between 160 seats by my guess and 250 seats by BJP supporter claims. This, of course assumes that BJP spending on hate campaigns is determined by data from campaigning that identifies threat and not random fixation (which is also possible – BJP is not very sane these days – in which case, this source of behavioral data would be useless).
The other part of the AAP threat to BJP of course is that AAP will have ready support from several parties if it chooses to form a government, and it will be out of “cartel control” so to say, since on a National level, AAP will hardly have no alternative except the BJP mirror Congress. Entities that have traditionally allied with BJP have appreciated AAP, including Raj Thackeray and Mamata Banerjee – who had also endorsed their calls for RTI for political parties through ALL MPs from their party. They may not support AAP now, but they have made their appreciation clear in the past, and if AAP is in a position better than those holding their support strings? Who knows? Navin Patnaik, Nitish Kumar, Mayawati have been seen as vaguely hopeful, even. CPI-ML is actually endorsing Kejriwal in Varanasi to aid in defeating Modi. If AAP is in a position to form a government with support, there is going to be no dearth of support, because smaller parties, like the people of India had no real choice beyond BJP-NDA and Congress-UPA either so far. So far AAP claims to be independent, and it genuinely is, when it comes to chasing their manifesto. But this doesn’t mean that it won’t pull off a Delhi surprise again, particularly if it means keeping both Congress and BJP out of power.
THIS IS THE REAL THREAT OF AAP TO THE POLITICAL CARTELS.
Of course, this is dependent on how many seats AAP gets. It could indeed get five. But the risk is there, because at this stage, no one knows.
But the cartels are taking no risks. In Varanasi at least, it appears as though BJP, Congress and SP are leaving each other alone to target Kejriwal.
Regardless, AAP is unlikely to form a government with a clean majority, and anything less is going to collapse under the nuisance value of cartels who do NOT want AAP to reform their cash cows into oblivion.
AAP should also consider the possibility of supporting a third front if it forms, if it results in Congress and BJP being in opposition. This will create space for reforms that allow more action against political cartels.
It will also provide some stability aganst the combined nuisance value of the two biggest parties and their owners
This is basically stuff I’ve said on Twitter over time. No idea why people want me to put it all in one place. I’m neither an “expert” nor using real statistics. Merely observing nuances that indicate what may really be happening.
Might be interesting to check back in a month, though 😀
22 thoughts on “Predictions for Lok Sabha Elections 2014”
Polly brolly….. we are talking about MODI – HE IS GOD. It might have seemed undigestable when I wrote 320+ and going so far as to say 363….. but u c….. I was right. Up was a shocker for all of u…. I predicted tht too….. bihaar is almost bjp sweep….. d only thing I got wrong was I thot bsp shud get couple of seats… I forgot mulayam has 5 seats for his family…. other than that… all good man…. life is good…. whoever thot aap is getting 100 seats needs to goto nursery of politics… sorry I talk straight.
Guys it is MAY 20TH….. I AM BACK FOR YOUR KUDOS ON BEING THE ONLY ONE TO PUT IT RIGHT!! I told ya guys….320+…. now I take a Bow!!!! Yo yo modi!!!!! Kejriwal will be back in 2017….he is finished until then..
Regarding the exit poll, remember only TS Chanakya got it right last time (and was the one not caught on camera fudging numbers unlike others).
All others channels and agencies have no credibility for me, just TS Chanakya. If it also gets it wrong this time, I will have completely no faith in any data obtained from india.
I am waiting for this exit poll to predict …
Amazing write up whoever you are : however not only does it portray your unconditional admiration for AAP for blatantly disgusting and unfounded loathe for BJP ( same as AAP) , particularly after the Delhi fiasco by AAP.
To try and even mention a figure for AAP as a central party with enough numbers for others to accept (support) it is not only amusing but hilarious and laughable (non stop). Even their own survey under the best of circumstances does not mention a number anywhere (unlike Delhi where they claimed 47 seats with a likelihood of the same increasing to 52-55, as per the survey of the most honest psephologist of this world, the highly dishonest and yesteryears cong strongman Yadav). If his own survey is taken into consideration the indication at best manages to cross the single digit mark including a winning dream of Gurgaon , Noida, Varanasi, Bangalore, Mumbai, 4 seats in Punjab, Chandigarh, clean sweep in Delhi …out of which maybe they have a chance in Chandigarh, one in Punjab, 1-2 in Delhi and a few more here and there.
We can smell everything burning when you talk about the money spent by BJP as AAP left no stone unturned to do so themselves when they fought the Delhi elections ..which is hardly a state by any angle (size , population, constituencies together) …isn’t AAP spending now ? And don’t talk about the figures, as maybe Kejriwal has some method wherein he can cover the entire country in a train / Bus / Car or auto ( which again is sheer drama) and rants about others using a chopper : 49 days gave him unprecedented power and a greed which has made him occupy the official residence till date.
Nowhere have you mentioned his real target of becoming a national party somehow ONLY to enjoy the benefits extended to a national party. Nowhere have you evaluated or given an indication about the number of seats AAP might win ..or the areas / zones / states where they are strong and hope to win a sizeable chunk.
The very thought of a third front govt not only does not amuse me but scares me …and you would be no novice not to realise that they would take us to a point of no return within no time ..free EVERYTHING and RSERVATION for all except for HINDUS or the middle class.
Your write up besides being exhaustive and a poem singing gallantry of AAP is nothing but trash !
Hey Nitasha, amazing write up, but one needs to understand that the people’s choices are so different and various factors come to play in a vast country like India, Its just not Delhi as in AAP and Gujarat as in BJP, before and on the day of voting, swing is very prominent. I appreciate your analysis and 300+ is a remote possibility as TDP will not get the number of seats as per BJPs calculations however, they are already trying to fill the void with YSRs Jagan! This itself goes on to prove the adversity in Indian politics! Call it BJPs wrong strategy or bad luck development in Andhra for BJP!
South India is very different and this will be the key for sure. BJP hardly has a presence apart from Karnataka where they messed up and continued to send the message of messing up by inducting Yeddy and Sriramulu back in BJP! Never know how Karnataka responds, thats key for 10-15 seats atleast! But if Modiji either tries to clean up Yeddy and Ramulu from all the ill, or in contrast if he even charges them with so called corruption, then obituary is for sure for BJP in Karnataka! Its catch 22 for BJP in the only BJP prominent state in South India.
From Tamilnadu, its again a toothbrush without a paste! If their conglomeration of allies does not work, they need Amma or Anna to back them. Its LBW decision pending with third umpire in Amma and Anna as far as TN is concerned.
Kerala has not stake to offer, outside chances is 1 seat!
Maharashtra, MP and Rajasthan reports a good share, but how good is for us to wait n watch till 16th May!
UP and Bihar is BJPs trump card, any change in voting pattern, its curtains for all the adverting and marketing campaign till date!
Odisha a gain of 3-5 seats for sure, allies and their set of rules and regulations to form the Govt. will decide the fate of BJP.
Cong needs no mention here as they are not touble shooters unless BJP’s own tally falls below 180!!!
320+… I said so….. I have followed indian politics for 15years..since I was a kid… its my passion… most aap pwoplw r neo politicians… they wl tske time to understand
AAP is taking something between 70 to 100 seats according to modest estimates. Media is covering up huge success of AAP. In Punjab they are taking something between 8 to 13 seats easily (even after extensive rigging and goondaraj by BJP and its allies). Add to it Delhi and Haryana seats where AAP is very popular. You get 20+ seats from these 3 states only.
One major thing is that AAP has extensive support from rural areas. This came as surprise as even AAP leaders were apprehensive about support from rural india. The candidates are themselves flabbergasted at the support from villages in punjab and harayana which they did not expect.
As for other states from where I do know, Uttranchal, Gujrat and MP is mainly BJP(Uttranchal guys were called to bogus vote for BJP in Delhi state elections, so that must be its major area). Rajasthan no one is sure. UP has BSP and AAP as main contenders. West Bengal has good AAP support because of them being pro socialism. Karnataka, from what I hear again has good AAP support.
So them getting 70 to 100 seats is modest estimate.
If I may ask, can you give me the source for the guys from Uttaranchal being called for bogus voting in Delhi? Will be useful to have handy.
One of my friend lives in uttranchal. He had gone for holidays there during delhi voting. He told me about buses from there to go for voting in delhi, people telling them to come and vote for BJP in delhi. (I thought it was common knowledge for locals there).
This is not anything new. Its common phenomena actually. These voters are usually reaching the voting polls late at evening. And actually it doesn’t make too much of difference – 2 or 3 percent. Only making difference in close polls.
But the fact that such buses did go from there means that BJP has a lot of support from locals as well as bureaucrats there. So the significant news out of that incident is that BJP will be strong in uttanchal.
Get your head examined It is in poor shape Wishful thinking is not prediction
It would be nice if you did a background research on last 20 years of Indian politics.
You have spent so much energy on some aspects whuch have no base and are almost hilarious. I voted for AAP in delhi. Just to prove I am not into one singke party. I hsve voted for Modi.
AAP has absolutely no chance of crossing 20 seat mark on a very very very good day of polling. I had predicted 25+ seats for it in Delhi.
I could imagine a thrid front govt 2 weeks back. But now no more. There is a simple math equation. Each constituency is about 22lac ppl. Voting population 16lavs. Actual voters about 10lacs. Any candidate rewuires about 3lac vote plus to win. The constituency is massive. In delhi the size is 1lac voter. To win you need 30k voes. Thts it. Delhi is tiny compared to the country. Why do u think Modi needs money to campaign. Why is aap asking for money to campaign. Its the sheer size of india. I habe travelled all over the country for work and have associates spread out. I have people in varanasi too. Let me tell you sir kejriwal is fighting a very very lost battle. Modi ji will win by a massive landslidde. In varanasi people are different. They dont get soo polarized.
what aap is doing is cutting massively into congress muslim vote bank. It is advantage bjp. There are 10 parties vying for the 20% muslim vote. The vote stands divided in most places.
AAP chose wrong strsategy. It should have concentrated on 50 seats to get a fighting chance in at least 30. They just do not have the means to create an entire vertical in 3 months.
The problem arises when kejriwal will loose to modi, he will loose some base in delhi as well. The next CM candidate for bjp is none other than Dr. KIRAN bedi. Not shiela dixit but a much loved lady cop. What congress served to kejriwal on silver platter to prove a point to the world…he has lost due to his mis advisors. That is the truth of the matter. You can reply on 16th may if I am wrong.
bjp with allies is looking at 320+ seats. It might …. just might touch 363. The modi wave work is on since 2011. One needs to follow inside news.
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You know, I hope you are around on May 16th, would love to see your numbers out there :))))
Tejaswi…..sorry but m having the last laugh….!!! 320+ indeed…. ysr and amma r vying to support which puts its very comfortably at 370+… u c…..what modi is out to achieve is also lauvhable for some people…. if he can rebuild kutch in 5 months and give electricity to an entire state in 1 year….. we r talking about a man par excellence…… u have no idea how lucky u r to have him as ur PM. Maybe it will b laughable to u today….. but come back here after a year…. u will forget aap….. n u will cry tears of joy….. for india is finally blessed
I pretty much agree with the prediction. And as for paid media’s “waves” – this is India Shinning Part 2.
Waves are creared. Pepsi coke LV dior… they all position themselves in the market. The work for modi wave is on full time since 2011 but on the inside since 2010. The entire anti corruption movt was initiated by ramdev with bjp help. The first mahasabha of ramdev was on 28th feb 2010 in ramlila ground whr over 2 lac ppl came. It was not covered by media. You can chk youtube. Ramdev introduced anna and this is when annaz fast in april was announced. I hope I have not given an overload of info here.
One comment about Modi in Varanasi: yes Modi can be PM even if he is defeated. But if he is defeated, then his political authority at the national level within BJP will be diminished significantly. It will also mean that he will need many more seats to actually claim PMship. There are enough of his opponents within BJP who are waiting for opportunities to clip his wings, and who will surely not let go of such a big one. That will be for the better of all (though its possible that he will build his power back over a period of time if he does become PM).
As of now it does look likely that NDA will have 200+ though nowhere close to majority. UP & Bihar hold the key and no one seems to know what is going on in those two states with any degree of confidence.
Bjp is sweeping bihar completely. It will be a shocker in UP. I see bsp and bjp as the only 2 parties getting seats. Rahul is going to be very near loosing amethi. Might win by 30k votes. Last time it was some insane 3lac figure.
Togadia is a supporter of Modi, as much as Arvind Kejriwal is a supporter of Sonia. Period.
Togadia and Modi have been associates for a long time. Togadia and modi used to travel and work together on same scooter for rss. But as time passes therehas been friction in between both of them. Modi does not like togadias style and vice versa. They are united bcoz of party not personal equation. Modi as retaliation removed togadias inside man and dissuades his coetrie to interact with togadia. It is like 2 brothers in a family who can’t see eye to eye but still are dedicated to the family. In their own way.
Don’t you think the BJP should seek support from the AIADMK? I know there has recently been some war of words, but the AIADMK is stated to win about 20 seats in TN, which could make a real difference!