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7

Growing evidence shows that India is serving interests of foreign influencers at the cost of the well being of Indian citizens. Demonetisation is just one in a long list of moves that benefit big money.

Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, said something interesting when he addressed the Digi-Dhan mela today. He said that Bill Gates told him that more than 100 Cr have mobile phones, 109 Cr have Aadhar cards, digital economy will boom in India.

This had many people puzzled. What does Bill Gates have to do with anything that he's been quoted out of the blue? Why would Bill Gates be the source of information on how many mobile phones or Aadhaar cards are in India for the Finance Minister with access to National statistics? For example the Assocham Deloitte study that says that internet connectivity is still out of reach for 950 million Indians? A few others, who had been paying attention to the news remembered Bill Gates endorsing the demonetisation last month and then denying much knowledge of it and limiting his endorsement to the digitisation of the Indian economy.

But what does Bill Gates have to do with India's demonetisation that he was even asked to comment or endorse it at all or that made headlines on the subject twice and a month later the Finance Minister used data allegedly provided by him to support the viability of this insane venture? 100 crores is 1 billion - in a country of 1.2 billion, with 22% of the population (264 million!) below an absurd poverty line. You'd need to hand phones to babies on birth to get that kind of penetration! That alone should tell you that the number is useless for anything more than propaganda. It is the total number of SIMs sold. Of them "active" - used once a month at a minimum - are 900 million. This number would also include dual SIM phones, SIMs used for non-phone devices (air pollution measuring devices, for example), multiple SIMs used for businesses and so on. This really tells you nothing about the kind of penetration that would allow cashless transactions. Far more accurate statistics with relevance to demonetisation are available for India that make it clear that India has 220 million (100 crore is 1 billion) smart phone users (not all of them have internet enabled).

For that, we must rewind a bit, to something I've mentioned briefly in previous articles and explore it in more details.

Worldwide, as banks fail to manage their money responsibly, we are seeing them flounder. Powerful companies and people writing and influencing monetary policies are encouraging cashless transactions - supposedly to improve the government's coverage for taxation, but in reality, in a country with 70% of its population only owning 10% of its wealth while the top 1% own almost 60%, the cost of digitizing the vast majority of citizens is not even going to be covered by anything that can possibly be recovered from their meagre income that is way below taxable limits. It doesn't take a hotshot economist to know that in a country where 1% of the population pays taxes, the "tax net" is unlikely to get any substantial benefits from being thrown over 100% to see who gets caught. The costs of such an exercise would outstrip any benefits.

What going cashless actually achieves is providing a lifeline to banks by:

  1. Getting most of the nation's money into them and shoring up their failing liquidity
  2. By generating an income for them from the routine transactions of every citizen's day to day living.
  3. Preventing withdrawal of cash from banks by people who want to make more economical choices instead of paying commissions for every use of money.

This happening in India is of a great deal of profit to the global banking elite as well, as credit card services, banks invested in India and other financial service providers generate an income for banks based outside India with their shares of the seemingly small transaction charges on day to day use of money in a country of 1.2 billion people.

There is a great deal of effort put into "encouraging" countries worldwide into adopting cashless transactions by the global financial elite and governments stumped by failing banks and the lure of improved tax collection are capitulating, though none fell as hard and recklessly as the Indian government.

The Quint had correctly reported that the USAID had launched the “Catalyst: Inclusive Cashless Payment Partnership”, designed to scale digital payments systems in India in partnership with India's Ministry of Finance on the 14th of October. This is the press release on the official USAID website. So it is unclear why The Quint updated its article to remove this information and instead add an update that it was initiated jointly by USAID and GOI, but commissioned on the 15th of November as though it didn't happen till it was commissioned. Regardless, this explains what Bill Gates was doing there at all to be commenting on the demonetisation - that should have been a domestic issue. Among the organizations partnering in the Catalyst is the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Also included in the list is the UN fronted Better Than Cash Alliance that India joined on the 1st of September 2015. To quote their website, "The Alliance is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Citi Foundation, Ford Foundation, MasterCard, Omidyar Network, United States Agency for International Development, and Visa Inc. The United Nations Capital Development Fund serves as the secretariat."

So, Bill & Melinda Gates, Omidyar Network, Mastercard and Visa participate as themselves as well as as part of the Better than Cash Alliance. USAID participates through the BCA. World Economic Forum participates directly. Many Indian banks, and surprisingly PayTM as well as phone networks are included.

Way before anyone in India articulated a need for cashless payments beyond the normal use for convenience - and there was an existing natural rate of adoption, USAID and its allies seem to have got the bright idea that India needed to go cashless and moved to get India to participate. Not one, but two organizations created in their need to "save" India from itself. One wonders why. The economy was doing well, the government was already undertaking means to improve access and inclusion of more citizens in the banking system - for example, the Jan Dhan Yojana, the expansion of the DBTL scheme (both of which put citizen's money into banks, the second mandatorily) had both been launched before the government joining these groups for promoting a digital economy in India.

Given the catastrophic results of the demonetisation, and the complete absence of consulting with anyone in the country - the government's own economists, RBI directors or security agencies included, it becomes important to ask just who was consulted and the quality of information that was provided and whether it influenced decisions adversely for the country.

There are reasons to believe that there may have been influence against National interest:

  1. Jaitley's direct quote of incorrect statistics allegedly provided to him by Bill Gates, that he used in order to justify the demonetisation at the Digi Dhan mela, even as all statistics of any reputable source point to the opposite. The RBI's data even shows that while the number of card transactions at PoS has increased (out of necessity), the value of transactions has actually gone down, clearly indicating a reluctance to adopt cashless transactions more widely than what was going on naturally.
  2. While in opposition, the BJP itself has pointed out that the CIA works through the USAID programme acting through philanthropic foundations to destabilize countries. There is considerable evidence to support this that BJP were already aware of. USAID has been implicated in covert operations to support subversive activities in countries from Cuba to Pakistan and notably the backing of Al Qaeda affliated rebels in Syria recently.
  3. Ford Foundation grants have in the past preceded at least two major political upheavals in the country - the Janlokpal Andolan and the creation of the Vivekananda International Foundation (which backed it and later ran subversive slander campaigns undermining the newly emerging AAP) were both preceded by grants by the Ford Foundation to their founding members or organizations. The Jan Lokpal Andolan discredited the government then in power. The Vivekananda International Foundation masterminded the rise of the current government, discredited the Aam Aadmi Party that was on the rise and now has an extraordinary number of members appointed to government positions, including the National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, under whose "able guidance", India's regional foreign policy has collapsed. There are allegations that he influenced a controversial supercession in the appointment of the next Army Chief.
  4. Contributed by reader Prem A (in comments below): The conflict of interest doesn’t stop there, Dr Nachiket M. Mor is the country directory of Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and he is also one of the directors of RBI.
  5. Usual sources of reliable advice and information to the government appear to have been bypassed in this apparently "well planned" demonetisation, indicating that other sources of information were likely used - the government may potentially have been misled to use information that was not in national interest. This needs investigation given the mounting damage being inflicted on the country.
  6. Strangely, neither the government's joining the Better than Cash Alliance, nor the Catalyst were reported in India at all. For a government that proudly publicizes its every sneeze and hiccup that is dutifully given maximum publicity by a subservient media, if this were indeed a move that would benefit India, it is unclear why the Prime Minister would not proudly declare it.

4

The RBI had removed from its website a transcript it had published of Shri R. Gandhi's statement about the currency disbursed to the public by the RBI. It was later published as a few bullet points with controversial parts removed as an "edited transcript"

The RBI had originally placed the transcript of Shri R. Gandhi and Shri S. S. Mundra, RBI Deputy Governors brief Agencies on Currency Issues on their website. At that time, James Wilson, who has been diligently tracking the numbers of demonetisation had raised questions about the numbers of currency given out.

Subsequently, the transcript in question was removed.

This was verified by me. The statement had been removed. You can check this yourself on the RBI website. A sanitized version of what he said was later put up by the RBI (on the 13th Dec 2016) as an "edited transcript" of Shri R. Gandhi and Shri S. S. Mundra, RBI Deputy Governors brief Agencies on Currency Issues with the controversial part removed (correction: it was a new statement). However, nothing dies on the internet. Producing here the original transcript that the RBI had published and the original url it had been published on. It remains removed. Parts in tialics are emphasized by me - these were the ones highlighted by James Wilson when he commented on the statement.

Transcript of Statement made by Shri R. Gandhi, Deputy Governor

There have been several questions about the decision to withdraw the legal tender status of the ₹ 1000 and the old series of ₹ 500 notes.

The motivations for the decision are to deal with the problem of high quality counterfeit notes in these denominations and unearth black money that may be held in cash. The decision has not been taken in haste but after detailed deliberations. There had to be a high level of secrecy surrounding this decision and the fact is that such a large country was indeed taken by surprise when the decision was announced. The Reserve Bank and the Central Government were conscious of certain immediate difficulties that the public at large could face and all efforts were made to minimise them and mitigate them. The problems of the common persons were at the top of the policy makers’ radar and all dispensations were calibrated to address them without at the same time jeopardising the achievement of the larger policy objectives.

The Reserve Bank and the Central Government run note presses are working to their full capacity and all efforts are being made to reach the notes to every part of the country. In fact during this period (from 10th November 2016 to 5th December 2016), the Reserve Bank has supplied to the public banknotes of various denominations worth ₹ 3.81 trillion.

As regards lower denomination notes of ₹ 100, ₹ 50, ₹ 20 and ₹ 10, the Reserve Bank, over its counters and through bank branches all over the country, has supplied 19.1 billion pieces of denominations in this period. (₹ 100 – 8.5 billion, ₹ 50 – 1.8 billion, ₹ 20 – 3.1 billion and ₹ 10 – 5.7 billion). This is more than what the Reserve Bank had supplied to the public in the whole of last three years.

We reiterate that there is adequate supply of notes and hoarding of notes helps nobody’s cause. We also strongly advocate the public to switch to digital payment modes given that there are several options, there are adequate safeguards and there is an increasing acceptability of this mode of payment by a large number of recipients.

It was originally published on the following url: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/bs_viewcontent.aspx?Id=3286 and may still be verified against Google's cache while it remains cached. However, I have saved it here now, to ensure that it does not vanish again.

It is extremely concerning that the RBI can simply delete official data released and statements made on whim from their records. If there are inaccuracies or problems, they should be corrected, not sneakily be taken off the records. RBI has already shaken the public's trust in the money and its ability to manage money. It does not bode well if the RBI"s word cannot be trusted either.

8

As soon as the demonetisation of Rs.500 and Rs.1000 notes was announced, I had said that it was a forced and public funded "bailout" of banks. This article examines news reports from the last year and explains how I arrived at the conclusion.

Please note: I am not an economist or banker or accountant or even particularly good with money or calculations. As a result, almost all the conclusions in this article are actually quoted from news reports and analysis. I have merely strung them together. I could still be wrong, feel free to argue in the comments.

As soon as the demonetisation of Rs.500 and Rs.1000 notes was announced, I had said that it was a forced and public funded "bailout" of banks. This is a phenomenon polite people call recapitalization unless the government literally dumps money into banks.

This view has not changed. But many are skeptical, saying that excessive money with banks is not good for them as they will have to lend it out in order to earn from it. That is true, and they will have to lower interests and give out more loans and such. However, to those following the news, I'm simply presenting various things that happened in the year before the demonetisation. Particularly with regard to the Non Performing Assets - NPAs. Too many NPAs and the banks won't be able to function. On the other hand... pay attention here: The bank with the largest number of NPAs - State Bank of India - doesn't seem to be in as much crisis as several others - say... Indian Overseas Bank - guess why? Because with that size come plenty of other performing assets as well as deposits keeping the show going.

For the record, it isn't the first time that the government has forced the country into actions that end up putting money in banks. The Jan Dhan Yojana was the first. It doesn't seem to have yielded much. Then came the DBTL, where in spite of the Supreme Court saying that citizens must not be deprived of their rights because of not having an Aadhaar, a convoluted scheme was imposed on them where the gas subsidies provided for the state would be provided as deposits into their bank accounts as opposed to people paying less for gas while buying it. Small amounts at a time, but it would end up totaling to a good amount of money belonging to citizens getting deposited into the banks by the government. People were free to withdraw it, but at least some of it would hopefully remain as deposited, just like some Jan Dhan accounts would indeed see use even if most remained empty. But these are old stories.

The NPAs of banks had increased to an alarming level by the end of the December quarter, last year. Then governor of RBI, Raghuram Rajan had been on the case of banks for NPAs for a while, and took a firm view of the matter, giving the banks until March 2017 to deal with their NPAs. Banks were to start flagging and resolving NPAs and restructured loans and by March, skeletons were tumbling out of banking closets and it was clear that the banks had been underplaying NPAs in order to show better results to investors (presumably). With the pressure on from the RBI, the banks started turning the heat on defaulters. It is no secret that it is banks with large corporate loans struggling the worst with NPAs, and I can only speculate that people who knew people who knew people had a lot of money at stake. To quote from the linked article:

RBI had conducted an asset quality review of Indian banks and found many accounts that were showing stress were required to be classified as non-performing. But since banks were not classifying those accounts as NPA, the banking regulator directed lenders to classify them as sub-standard and provide accordingly. Sub-standard assets attract 15-20 per cent provisioning as compared to five per cent provisioning requirement in standard assets.

RBI had asked the banks to complete the exercise of classifying assets as NPA in the third and fourth quarter.

As a result, many banks including the likes of Bank of Baroda, IDBI Bank, Bank of India suffered record losses in the Oct-Dec quarter. Since the remaining accounts (those which were not classified as NPA in Q3), need to be classified as NPA in Q4, losses could her mount. Bankers said this has prompted the banks to call the management of the defaulting companies and ask them to make payments, which will help the lenders avoid further losses.

Incidentally, this is around the time when Narendra Modi claims that planning for demonetisation started (although there doesn't seem to be much evidence of planning going by the manner in which it has been carried out).

Soon after this began noises of Raghuram Rajan not continuing as the governor of RBI after his tenure was complete. What happened behind scenes is anyone's guess and rumors and claims out in public range from Raghuram Rajan not wanting to continue to the government not wanting him to continue. Regardless, he was succeeded by Urjit Patel, who headed GSPC in Modi's Gujarat when GSPC took loans to the tune of 20,000 crore and basically had nothing to show for them, with no gas ever being produced. His closeness to Ambani (who profited majorly from the GSPC mess) as well as Jignesh Patel is well known. So, given Modi's preference for complete incompetence in area where competence is expected being a requisite for appointments, who better than Urjit Patel to head RBI while it was overseeing banks reducing NPAs?

Unlike Raghuram Rajan's approach, where the RBI would support banks in dealing with bad loans, Urjit Patel was of the view that "bad banks" take over the debt. It is unclear what happened of that approach or whether and what efforts continued toward NPAs, but they continued to rise. Attempts by Modi (and one wonders why Modi) to get Indian state owned firms to take over floundering defaulting companies (and their debt) failed a month before demonetisation was declared by Modi. To quote from the link:

India's government is pushing state-owned steel, power and shipping firms to take over assets of private companies that have defaulted on loans, but faces resistance from them, leaving it scrambling to clear a $135 billion pile of stressed loans from banks' books.

[...]

Last month, steel ministry officials met with Modi to outline measures to revive a sector reeling under bad loans and cheap Chinese imports. Days later, in a renewed push, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley met with top lenders, including State Bank of India (SBI.NS) and ICICI Bank (ICBK.NS), steel and shipping ministry officials and some state-owned companies.

He gave the state-owned firms a list of 23 troubled steel, power and shipping companies with bad loans totaling $14.5 billion, according to government officials and minutes of the meeting seen by Reuters.

The state-owned firms were "encouraged" to buy at least one asset and take a minority stake in a company on the list.

The banks needed lots of money and fast, or many of them being Public Sector Banks with the government owning more than half of them, it would stress the government for funds. One wonders what was wrong with turning the screws on NPAs harder. The banks needed money and fast.

How could this be achieved? Well, how about if all the people in India put most of the money they had into banks and left most of it there?

What followed, with demonetisation seems to be a harebrained scheme to get most of the cash with the country into banks. This is how not only do the banks not have enough cash planned and are not even in a position to provide enough cash in the near future, we have increasing noises about "cashless" transactions being an intent behind the demonetisation. So the money gets transferred from account to account, but remains with the banks instead of returning to the people with limits withdrawn and notes available again.

Then with demonetisation with banks bloated with funds, some of the staggering NPAs were "written off" to reduce their burden and free the money the banks would have to provision for the bad loans. Any taxes the government got would be a bonus (but given the expenses and waivers of demonetisation, I doubt these were the real motive).

Added feedback from someone who knows more about money than me: While the increased deposits will allow the banks to lend more, earn more, lower interest rates, etc, the interest earned by the banks and taxes to the government will no doubt be useful toward recapitalizing the banks. As will various confiscations of deposits be.

So now the thoughtless demonetisation with it unending new rules being pulled out of hats has happened. Banks have a different problem. Too much cash. And the methods to deal with it won't necessarily result in big profits for them. What they will do to existing loans with the economy and thus borrowers stressed far worse is anyone's guess.

Finally, how do I know that this is really a bank bailout and not a coincidence? Well, now that things are going south with the demonetisation, the usual process of protecting Modi from the consequences of his own action has already begun. From being "Freedom at Midnight" - Modi's project planned meticulously and in complete and necessary secrecy for 10 months, the story now is that the RBI and Finance Ministry presented the demonetisation plan to Modi in a manner that "turning down the scheme was out of the question". And guess why (emphasis mine):

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is working “more than ten hours a day” just on ensuring that the 8 November money measures announced by him ensure a smooth landing for the economy rather than turbulence. This despite the fact that the plan actually owed its origin to the Reserve Bank of India and the Ministry of Finance, who persuaded the PM to go forward with an idea which will affect (and has affected) over a billion citizens of this country. Prime Minister Modi showed moral courage in coming forward and accepting ownership of the currency swap scheme announced on 8 November, and has since then publicly backed every twist and turn in that policy by the monetary and fiscal authorities. Senior officials say “Prime Minister Modi was presented with the issue in such a way that turning down the scheme was out of the question”. Through the plan, concerned officials wished to “shield those in high positions in banks across the country from the consequences of the crony-oriented lending that they had been doing, specially since 2006”, the year when Narasimha Rao’s liberalisation policy was fully substituted by the UPA into a faux Nehruvian economic policy that combined Fabian socialism with Wall Street ways. “Officials argued that a windfall of up to Rs 550,000 crore would flow to the banks through the enforced extinguishing of currency notes issued by the RBI, and that this would recapitalise several banks that were in effect bankrupt, thereby allowing them to lend again”. The Prime Minister was assured that “steps would be taken to ensure that the common man suffered minimal discomfort” and that “the informal economy would accelerate its absorption into the formal without jobs being affected”. It needs to be mentioned that it is the formal sector that is responsible for not repaying bank loans of a value crossing Rs 750,000 crore, which will be several times the value of tax evasion by the informal sector. NPAs are being written off by banks at an accelerating pace over the past six years, with still more businesses declaring themselves unviable by the month.

I rest my case.

3

The Osmanabad District Cooperative Bank Ltd, has started sending notices to farmers with outstanding loans asking them to repay the loans or the bank would take socially humiliating measures against them. So far over 30 farmers in Nagur alone have received these notices; in the Lohara taluka, over 1000 farmers. The notices are dated 14th October 2016, however the farmers claim that they received them on the 23rd November 2016 (the notices are likely backdated, essentially rendering the one month notice meaningless). The farmers have been informed that unless the loans are repaid, they will begin to face recovery process in December.

Osmanabad district in the Marathwada region of Maharashtra has been experiencing drought for several successive years leading to crop failures and increasing problems with bad loans and farmer suicides. As per government records, over a thousand farmers from here have committed suicide. The actual numbers are bound to be higher, as the government records often don't record those who either took loans from unregistered money-lenders, do not have their own land, or did not leave behind a suicide note (many are illiterate). The problem of farmer suicides had reached such horrifying extents that banks had been urged caution in the recovery of loans that were not paid.

This year some late seasonal rain had brought hope. After many years, it seemed like the cycle of despair was about to break and farmers were looking forward to sowing winter crops, when a new crisis hit. Demonetisation. Banks in rural Maharashtra have seen very little by way of new notes coming in to replace the Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes that have been withdrawn as legal tender. As a consequence, there is a severe cash crunch in most villages. Indeed in most of rural India. With Rabi crops due to be sowed and no money in hand to buy seed, things looked hopeless. The government allowed the purchase of seeds with old Rs. 500 notes, allowing a tentative hope to seed, when a further crisis hit several homes in Nagur village.

The Osmanabad District Cooperative Bank Ltd, has started sending notices to farmers with outstanding loans asking them to repay the loans or the bank would take socially humiliating measures against them. So far over 30 farmers in Nagur alone have received these notices; in the Lohara taluka, over 1000 farmers. The notices are dated 14th October 2016, however the farmers claim that they received them on the 23rd November 2016 (the notices are likely backdated, essentially rendering the one month notice meaningless). The farmers have been informed that unless the loans are repaid, they will begin to face recovery process in December.

osmanabad-district-cooperative-bank

This is a translation of the letter (written in Marathi):

Osmanabad District Cooperative Bank Ltd., Head Office, Osmanabad

Agriculture Credit /   / 2016-17.     NOTICE.  Date: 14/10/2016

Shri. Yadav Lukshiram Patil ,  Place:  Nagur

Greetings.

You must be aware of the economic situation of the Osmanabad District Bank. Since the bank is in a financial difficulties, the bank depositors have their full focus on the bank. Due to the increase in overdue unpaid loans there is the fear of  loss of liquidity for the bank which is now caught in this quagmire. At least at this time, the only option the bank has to improve its situation is to recover the overdue loans. Naturally, due to the pending loans with you, the bank is unable to pay its depositors the amounts they want to withdraw whenever they want to withdraw. As a result, the depositors are very disappointed with the bank operations. Similarly, many depositors, when they are faced with the prospect of being unable to withdraw their own money from their accounts are sending us statements that if they cannot withdraw their money, they will be forced to commit suicide and you should be aware that if any depositors commit suicide for such reasons, you will he held responsible and you should understand this.

You are a respectable member of the society and you have an overdue loan since 25/1/2000 with the Y. V. K. Seva Society which is a  partner of 'Bhorala' (not sure of this name). Because of your overdue loan, the bank is facing a cash crunch and the bank cannot conduct its operations effectively.

The bank's management committee, senior officers and employee association have decided to use Gandhigiri to try and recover the loans. For this, the bank has decided to do one of the following: 1) Put up a tent opposite your house to protest 2) Make use of a band  3) Ring bells

Due to these actions, your standing and image in society is likely to be in danger. Therefore, to avoid such a situation, you should immediately repay your overdue loans with interest in the concerned bank within 30 days and take a receipt for such payment. Else, the recovery team will take action as explained above.

We are deliberately writing this to you so that you are aware of the situation.

We are in no doubt that you will repay your loan and avoid any unpleasant events from happening.

Expecting your cooperation,

Details of Overdue Loans:

Type of loan,  Principal: 136300  Interest: 348930 . Total : 485230

Yours faithfully,

Sd-

Vijay S. Ghonse

Executive Director

Suresh Ediga, an NRI who had done volunteer work related with organic farming in the region over the last few years was informed about these notices when Dnyaneshwar, who runs an NGO to improve farmers' financial literacy, told him about the plight of the farmers receiving the notices. The farmers are understandably anxious. Cash strapped, demonetisation trapped, and due to sow their rabbi crops, they are in no condition to repay the loans, which have piled up over years of severe drought, with dues that have doubled or tripled in the interim in many cases. One season of rain is nowhere close to adequate to clear loans. The bank is pressuring them because the bank itself is short of cash and this year, due to the rain, the restrictions on loan recovery have been relaxed. Earlier when the bank had threatened farmers about loan recovery during drought, the district collector had intervened. It is unclear what will happen now. Suresh has contacted the district collector again, who has assured him that he will intervene to ensure no harassment happens, but it appears to be a far-from-resolved situation.

The bank itself is close to bankruptcy. Dnyaneshwar contends that far larger loans taken by politicians, sugar factories and other local bigwigs were written off routinely, while farmers are pressurized to repay their own loans. An interesting practice is that moneylenders take loans from the banks and loan this money to farmers. These loan defaulters are politically powerful and well connected and the farmers are not able to confront these practices for fear of backlash. The bank is aware of these practices and yet easily extends loans to them, but the loans to ordinary farmers are very difficult to get and the interest is calculated in a manner that the farmers cannot understand, departing from RBI guidelines where the amount of interest should not exceed the capital. Farmers have often been advised to restructure but they have not been provided adequate information and bank officials, from time to time have taken their signatures on various papers, but no restructuring appears to have taken place. In several cases, the interest is several times the capital. With demonetisation no one has any money at all, and the bank seems to have seen this as an opportunity to extort whatever cash they can get their hands on, from farmers.

All the farmers receiving these notices are planning to meet collectively to decide a course of action. With their backs to the wall and at risk of suicide, they are being threatened that they will be held responsible for potential suicides of those who will not be able to withdraw money from the bank due to their non-repayment of dues. They fear harassment from the recovery agents of banks. Being financially vulnerable themselves in a region where there are several suicides of farmers per week, the threat of being held legally, socially or morally responsible for the suicide of any another person, even in an illogical manner, is a particularly traumatizing threat. The idea that they could publicly be accused of causing suicides and humiliated has them all in a terrible state and Dnyaneshwar fears that this kind of extortion can lead to increased suicides this year. It is a Mexican standoff made worse by the cash crunch stemming from demonetisation. The farmers inform Suresh that they have been warned of actions taken to socially humiliate them beginning in December unless they pay off their dues.

Unless something is done to defuse the situation, the farmers could be faced with harassment over loans they don't have the money to pay off in addition to the stress of not having legal tender for expenses related to winter sowing (they can only buy seeds with the old notes). Banks need to find cash to satisfy increasingly irate customers bombarded with information about the withdrawals they are entitled to make, yet almost never see in rural India. People need money to survive, and banks are where they have been told they can get the money. It is a tinderbox of desperation waiting for a spark.

What happens next is anyone's guess.

Update: This story has been taken action on. It is now getting the attention of various people from banking to government and media. More information will definitely follow. There are actions being taken to protect the farmers from further threat.