Notice: This post is now final and frozen. Any updates will happen as new posts.
This is an analysis of the data from EVMs using ONLY the data officially released by the Election Commission of India as final.
Final voter turnout data has been provided by the Election Commission of India on this page. It does not go into detail, but merely provides the total number of voters per state in each phase. Out of this data, for purposes of this analysis, only data of total voters is considered, as EVMs can record neither gender nor the number of voters who didn’t vote.
Data of total EVM votes counted in each constituency has been painstakingly compiled from the official Election Commissions result page.
While this data is not adequate to investigate mismatches on a constituency level, it is indeed sufficient to establish that the EVMs do not represent the votes cast correctly.
Whether the reason for that is that they malfunction and miss votes or record them multiple times, or whether there is an actual conspiracy to manipulate EVM votes to alter the election result will take deeper analysis. However, this broad data is sufficient to establish that the ECI data on voter turnout and the EVM votes counted from that turnout does not match at all.
What is the reliability of the EVM result
- NONE of the numbers provided by the ECI as official total voters match the EVM results.
- Given that the voter numbers in the voter turnout app match the results, the voter turnout as claimed on ECI’s website and ECI’s app is different. This appears to be deliberate obfuscation, as the data originally published by the ECI and then deleted when discrepancies were pointed out matches the declared total turnouts better than the voting app numbers which are often identical to the EVM votes in the result. There will be more analysis published regarding this soon.
- I have not been able to find Jammu and Kashmir voting data for Phase 4 in the voter turnout app. Polling in the Anantnag constituency happened in three Phases. There is no voter turnout data in the app for J&K in Phase 4.
- Most major EVM mismatches are for states showing unexpected wins for the BJP. This sort of takes out the possibility of random errors as a cause for mismatches given that there are multiple candidates in each constituency.
Note: This is a large amount of data painstakingly collected by volunteers. While all efforts have been made to ensure that it is accurate, if you spot an error, please do bring it to our attention in the comments.
Special thanks to Jaya Sengupta, Ashlin Matthew and Aloke Ghosh for a lot of heavy lifting related to compiling the data used in all the Lok Sabha election analysis posts.