Updated: The mathematics of Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha Elections 2014

Uttar Pradesh vote shareUttar Pradesh vote share

A link posted on Twitter led me to investigate this. This is the link. I don’t think the maths is accurate, or that Wikipedia is a good source for this kind of thing, but luckily, I was able to locate good sources.

Warning: I am no election expert, nor am I all that great at maths. Verify rebut or endorse at your own risk.

The vote share in Uttar Pradesh as per http://ceouttarpradesh.nic.in/GE2014/VoterTurnout.pdf

Scroll right down to the bottom for total votes cast. I read the number 80926378 .

Now head over to the election commission website for the UP page and scroll down to the piechart for vote share with list on left, with number of votes cast. The numbers with dots in front of them expand to show full number when you hover your mouse over them, and you get the following results:

 

Uttar Pradesh vote share

Uttar Pradesh vote share

 

PartyVotes%Vote Count
BJP42.30%34318576
SP22.20%17988792
BSP19.60%15914019
INC7.50%6061236
IND1.70%1414863
AAAP1.00%821301
AD1.00%812325
RLD0.90%689409
NOTA0.70%592406
PECP0.60%500482
D0.40%354578
BMUP0.20%153821
CPI0.20%129471
Total79751279

 

That is looking like 1175099 LESS votes recorded.

Considering that several crucial victory margins can be explained by such numbers, if my maths is right, it looks like a re-poll, right?

Erm yes. EVM fraud is easily possible if you know how to hack it. Apparently EVM fraud likely happened in 2009 as well.

There are some explanations coming up, like the EC not providing vote share of “others” – probably independents, which could explain the difference. Others are saying that the difference could be the postal ballot. But going through the data per constituency disproves both.

The “others” being the difference gets disproved when you tally votes per constituency, where the number of votes each candidates gets is explicit and without room for omissions. We find that every constituency has a difference in number of votes cast and counted.

The postal ballot theory gets disproved because the votes counted don’t always exceed votes cast. A person voting by ballot can be understood. There is no explanation for votes already cast going missing – which is the difference in numbers on a state level, which goes above 11 lakh.

I will update data or all constituencies, but this initial sample is good enough to see what I mean.

 

ConstituencyVotes castVotes recordedDifference
Saharanpur119311111943081197
Kairana111733011193241994
Muzaffarnagar110391611074343518
Bijnor105808510603462261
Nagina942326942196-130
Moradabad112624211279651723
Rampur958585956389-2196
Sambhal10563221057002680
Amroha10952161095860644
Meerut11124241113384960
Baghpat10035331004263730

 

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About the Author

Vidyut
Vidyut is a blogger on issues of National interest. Staunch advocate of rights, learning and freedoms. @Vidyut

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