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There seems to be a fringe theory floating around about a larger international conspiracy (CIA etc) influencing Indian politics using the Ford Foundation (among other things). The Great Game India blog (linking to blog because too many interlinked posts to link individually) has been with this train of thought for a few years now. That the RSS creation VIF is manipulating Indian politics and that they started the India Against Corruption movement and so on. They link the Aam Aadmi Party with this larger political conspiracy.

Some of it is verifiably true. The Vivekananda International Foundation was indeed formed in the year after the Vivekananda Kendra got a grant from the Ford Foundation. Manish Sisodia, Kejriwal and others have got grants before the IAC movement and so on.

Some of it is only to be expected and verifiable through sources outside the country for example the US and CIA specifically not being interested in manipulating  a country the size of India makes no sense given their actions world over. There are leaks involving spying. The Great Game India Blog itself has provided considerable evidence of Mossad activity in India based on reports in Indian media including diamond mafia links and raising questions about Israeli role in the 26/11 attacks.

While there are many gaps in the logic that don't allow me to agree with many questions they make, the sheer effort they put into to reference their claims makes it important to at least consider the question with an open mind when they ask "Was AAP victory in Delhi Elections Planned?". The claim being that it was a larger part of a game plan all through to have Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister and Arvind Kejriwal as the Chief Minister.

My views on this are mixed.

Observations that point to the possibility of scripted wins in Lok Sabha Elections for Modi and in Delhi Elections for Arvind Kejriwal

Both these results would not have been possible without the self-destruction of the other just prior to the polls.

It is likely they would still have formed governments, but If the Aam Aadmi Party had not collapsed so thoroughly after discrediting the Congress, the landslide win for Modi would not be possible. The run up to the Lok Sabha Election saw the Aam Aadmi Party pretty much drop everything to find God and criticize Modi.

And the BJP returned the favor for the Delhi Elections. We saw Narendra Modi and Amit Shah go out of their way to "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory" as a disgusted supporter put it. Would the Aam Aadmi Party have won anyway? Probably, but 67 seats out of 70? Highly unlikely.

Is there any advantage to these sweeping wins in terms of manipulating India? Definitely. Complete lack of opposition leaves one entity controlling what is done without question.

"Kejriwal for CM, Modi for PM" slogan

This slogan is fascinating, because BJP supporters had used it to woo AAP supporters during the Lok Sabha Elections, and AAP supporters almost used it to woo BJP supporters in the Delhi Assembly elections. The Aam Aadmi Party actually put it up on their website before outraged volunteers made them take it down again.

Kiran Bedi as CM candidate

While many paint this as a move to get some credibility to a discredited BJP, it is impossible that those who crafted the IAC had no idea just how absurd and damaging to credibility Kiran Bedi can be. This was a calculated move to demoralize the Delhi BJP leaders. Dr Harshvardhan, who had been a face of credibility was available and unused, so to say, while Satish Upadhyay did not even get a ticket.

BJP's "abandonment" of the Sikhs

Arvind Kejriwal had reopened investigations into the 1984 ant-Sikh riots. The BJP had made vague and unc0nvincing comments. This definitely lost them Sikh votes. Yet yesterday, a day after the results of Delhi election, the BJP government in the Center announced another SIT (Special Investigating Team) to probe the 1984 anti-Sikh riots. If this was their intention, it is rather astonishing that they did not do it before the Delhi Elections.

Religious alienation

There seemed to be a checklist of religions to alienate. Muslims were easy, with the "Ramzadon and Haramzadon" stuff. Churches were vandalized. Sikhs were ignored and BJP's most dependable vote bank - Hindus were achieved with absurd dictates to Hindu women to produce 4, 5 or upto 10 children (depending on which idiot you happened to hear). It was almost the exact reverse of BJP's calculated propaganda to target identities to con into supporting.

Why BJP may want to lose Delhi Assembly Elections 2015

There is an article by this name circulating. This article is fascinating, because of several reasons. It outlines a diabolical game plan to make Aam Aadmi Party responsible for its own failure and eventual decimation by making delivering of promises difficult from the Center. The intent being "The media spotlight on Kejriwal government will allow Jaitley to quietly to push through unpopular reforms — disinvestment of PSUs, budget cuts in health, education in his attempt to cut budget deficit." among other things. Do read. A fascinating article. Also probably untrue for the Delhi BJP and supporters at the very least - the Modi cartels in the center apart.

My guess is BJP Delhi is discovering what Nitish Kumar, Shiv Sena, Swabhimani Shetkari Sangathan, Telangana and many others discovered after raising Modi to his lofty Lok Sabha victory. What Vidarbha is discovering after bringing BJP to power in Maharashtra. The goals and agenda of those "driving" the BJP have little to do with those of supporters or even their expectations when they supported.

There are other smaller pieces of information from news reports and more that fit into these patterns. Like information for exposes on Delhi BJP leaders coming from leaders within the BJP itself.

What do I think?

In my view, politics is rarely so black and white with a single agenda playing out. Where there is power, there are grabs. Is there a longer game plan involving the VIF? I believe so. Is Aam Aadmi Party a part of the plan? Not so sure.

The Aam Aadmi Party, in my observation was formed when BJP tried to bottle the IAC genie before it got too inconvenient and expected them to not be corrupt as well. Till then, the IAC had the strong backing of the RSS and BJP. For all its claims of being an apolitical movement and it probably was, in terms of the leadership of the movement, the amount of support on the ground it got from the RSS and BJP cannot be denied. In many places, "IAC" protests were organized by BJP offices, often right outside the office, where most of the speeches made a point of praising the BJP while criticizing UPA corruption.

Was Anna Hazare complicit? Many in the Congress claim so. Particularly after he praised Modi before hastily withdrawing his statements. He may have been influenced by the support rather than doing the influencing.

However, it cannot be denied that there was an abundance of VIF-RSS-BJP support, which eventually led to an ideological clash. Those in the IAC who were not willing to exempt the BJP would have to find other means of going about their agenda, because they could very likely no longer count on the support of the BJP machinery to hold nationwide protests (which took Anna and Kejriwal by surprise initially).

Thus, the Aam Aadmi Party being a VIF-RSS-BJP creation sounds a bit outside the realm of probability. However, it is almost guaranteed that there were people planted in the party right from the start. It is simply how the RSS operates. These people may have been able to influence the actions of the party to a greater or lesser degree or simply attack from within at inopportune times. So AAP actions could have played into a larger game plan UNKNOWINGLY - for example during the aftermath of the Ambani FIR and subsequent resignation of the Arvind Kejriwal government or the Lok Sabha Election.

We saw AAP leaders and volunteers "defect" for no apparent reason. The stated reasons of a lack of internal democracy or whatever the accusations were, were hardly something to have cropped up at specific times - they would be a part of the party culture that they didn't appear to have a problem with till the time to leave - within days of each other. So it looks more than a coincidence. Given the complicit media promoting all and sundry quitters as "ex-AAP leaders" and in one instance calling an "ex-AAP leader" a representative of AAP in a programme that had no one from AAP on the panel, it seems to be organized and given visibility in a time when media was openly called "Modified".

Also, AAP being a US-Israel conspiracy seems a little more improbable, because I cannot recollect offhand the last time these forces empowered "communist" ideology to empower their agendas. It is counterproductive to the US-Israel agenda for people who don't like "imperialists" to get too much voice - which is a sentiment often shared by Aam Aadmi Party supporters - while they are not actively against, they have a perception of being unwilling to bow to imposed interests or disproportionate or unjust appropriation of national resources by big business.

Thirdly, the US-Israel lobby almost always rattles up countries by empowering the right wing. We also see this in action with the occasional comments of right wing leaders that are in agreement with these two countries as well as the larger tendency - for example being fine with attacks on Hindus by the right wing Buddhists in Sri Lanka or on Rohingya Muslims in Burma or even a VIF member meeting the top right wing terrorist influencer in Pakistan and endorsing him on Indian television channels. A lot of the anti-Muslim propaganda arguments and methods used by the Hindutva brigade are extremely similar to Israeli propaganda. Right from selective history to demonize, to organized social media propaganda.

There are no such "behavioral" corelations with the Aam Aadmi Party that I have noticed so far. There is disproportionate weightage to Ford Foundation as funding anti-national interest. While it would hardly be surprising that the CIA uses front organizations or makes opportunistic use of genuine organizations, it is a little extreme to imagine that all its funding is proof of destabilization. The same with the Magsaysay awards. Only a complete idiot would imagine that P. Sainath is somehow working to further US imperial capitalist interest in India given how much time he has devoted to deconstructing such influences.

Of course, it could "all" be astroturfing. But it isn't useful intellectually to believe something that goes contrary to observable dynamics just because it is possible.

This of course does not exclude the possibility of influencing or otherwise manipulating.

Role of Shanti Bhushan

Shanti Bhushan is a respected lawyer and ex politician of BJP and close to Jaitley as well as one of the founders of the Aam Aadmi Party. He made a donation of one crore rupees to the Aam Aadmi Party, but almost every time he has come to attention since then, it has been for damaging the interest of AAP. Just before the Lok Sabha Election, an article "by Shanti Bhushan" was published in India Today, which he claimed to not have written and it was subsequently taken down. Many of the things said in that article continue to be attributed to him in recent interviews, though he denies writing it.

A "breakaway faction" or "collective of ex-supporters" of Aam Aadmi Party, the AVAM, which has made news with absurd allegations against the AAP appear to enjoy his support. More recently, in answer to some questions I asked after a stray remark by an AAP supporter caught my eye, several AAP volunteers shared privately (since they cannot provide proofs and he's a respected and senior member) that he had been in favor of AAP's overreach in contesting in the Lok Sabha polls, which was possibly the single biggest factor in AAP's defeat.

Whether Shanti Bhushan has an ulterior motive or whether he was simply easily influenced by inconvenient narratives is difficult to say and irrelevant at this point, but he does appear to be a consistent source of damage for AAP, including often reported disapproval of Arvind Kejriwal as the leader.

The curious case of Shazia Ilmi

If there is anyone who topped Shanti Bhushan in damage to AAP, it is Shazia Ilmi. The only two "sting" videos to do real damage to AAP credibility involve her. The first appears to show her providing methods to make donations to AAP off the record. The second is where she supposedly asks Muslims to be communal. Whether these were genuine mistakes and she was targeted for stings because she was observed to be careless with words or if she was corrupt or if she was setting AAP up cannot be said. But other common factors seems to be an inopportune exit, affiliation with the "apolitical" AVAM (the RSS is apolitical as well, for a benchmark), new affiliation with the BJP - incidentally a party she leveled outrageous insults at, including personal insults aimed at Modi - some of which even me, an open Modi critic would cringe at.

Binny seems to be more of an opportunist who wanted a way to easy power and got his hopes dashed, who later found enough "appreciation" from BJP. BJP is unlikely to ever give him a cabinet seat either.

All this is water under the bridge. merely stating as an example of how while the AAP as a party may not be "in" on any conspiracy agendas, there is no telling how many people committed to other agendas are embedded inside, who influence or sabotage the actions of the party to suit.

The RSS machine is an expert at subversive strategy and poor at accountability. Sooner or later, disillusionment was inevitable, because there is only so much you can tell people that Acche Din are here, if their lives don't get easier or actually get more expensive. They are smart enough to deploy propaganda at key times and let disillusionment happen in the interim.

So can the Aam Aadmi Party government be trusted?

It would be the height of gullibility to blindly trust ANY political party. Whether the AAP has an ulterior motive or not is irrelevant. It has abundant gaps where more refinement of policy is needed in order for their actions to not harm people's interest. The bottom line always ought to be whether the ACTIONS are helping people or not - regardless of motives or intent.

The AAP has some protection from outright damaging citizen's interests simply because it cannot stand without its volunteer base, and it is impossible to have a conspiracy large enough to include thousands of volunteers and still keep it secret. So even if there are foul agendas at play, implementing them would be an uphill task. That said, it wouldn't be impossible, and only the foolish would believe that all that it takes to receive good governance is casting a vote.

The Aam Aadmi Party government has been entrusted with making Delhi a happier, safer place where all its citizens can thrive. This is a tall order. And if the AAP is honest, spotting mistakes and objecting on time will HELP their objectives. If it is not honest, spotting mistakes on time and objecting may improve chances to prevent them.

Regardless, citizens should not trust governments, but hold them accountable, relentlessly.

This page aims to track extent of Cyclone Phailin relief and rehabilitation that will be needed based on news reports and tweets.

80 lakh people in 15,000 villages of 12 Odisha districts have been affected. 5 lakh Hectares of Standing Crops destroyed causing loss of about ₹2,400 Cr.

[mapsmarker layer="11"]

I am adding all news I come to hear, please add any I may have missed in the comments.

As you can see, being able to prevent loss of life has not meant saving livelihoods and homes. Your aid is as important as ever for the living. Here is how to donate or send aid for Cyclone Phailin survivors.

Note: The updates are neither in ascending nor descending in order to put related ones together, so time sensitive ones have time mentioned in brackets.

Chief Minister of Odisha, Naveen Patnaik has declared that relief will be provided for 7 days to families in severely affected areas n 14 days relief 4 people in very severely affected villages.

Cargo ship MV Bingo, last sighted east of Sagar in West Bengal is missing. Feared sunk. Search now on for 20 crew members. Update: Missing crew has been located. No casualties.

"Chief Minister has reviewed the Phailin cyclone, not much damage in Andhra Pradesh, 1 casualty, horticulture belts damaged." ~ Anam Ramanarayana Reddy, AP FM

Electricity has been cut off in Ganjam, Gajapati, Khurda, Nayagarh, Puri, Cuttack, Kendrapara, Jagatsingh, Jajpur, Bhadrak, Balasore and Mayurbhanj. (7:30am)

"Electricity will be restored in BBSR, Cuttack, Puri by evening of today." ~ Energy secretary Pradip Jena

13 electricity towers damaged all over Odisha, including 9 in Ganjam district, where it will take 4-7 days (1:40pm)

Power has been restored in Rasulgarh, Jagmara, Aerodrome area in Bhubaneswar & in Cuttack Badambadi.

Massive destruction to kutch houses in Odisha, specially in Ganjam and Kheonjhar districts. Thousands left homeless.

Alert lifted for Andhra Pradesh (11am)

Surjeet Singh, Deputy Inspector General, NDRF said that efforts to clear roads jammed by fallen trees is on. They are also clearing the debris off damaged properties and check for any trapped people.

Morning after Cyclone Phailin dawns. Some damage to buildings and uprooted trees and electricity poles, but no loss of life reported so far other than those before cyclone hit land yesterday. (7:30am)

"No casualties reported so far due to cyclone Phailin." (8:00am) ~ National Disaster Response Force Chief Krishna Chowdhary. Also "More than 50 teams working in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh." (10:15am)

IAF to start air dropping of relief materials in affected areas after 11am. (as of 7:45am) Flights preparing to resume with some delays expected.

Drinking water being supplied door to door in Bhubaneswar.

"We are taking stock as to how fast we can restore tracks and restore passenger and goods traffic." ~ Anil Saxena,Spokesperson Railways

About 7000 passengers are stranded in Puri and top priority is to restore Puri-Howrah line, and help them reach Howrah. Update: Train services restored between Howrah and Puri. (4:30pm)

"3 Lakh Hectares agricultural damage. 80,53,000 people affected. 14,515 villages under cyclone impact." ~ Special relief Commissioner

Impact of Cyclone Phailin on Srikakulam

One person reported dead.

"Restoration of electricity, drinking water within 2 days in Srikakulam" ~ T Radha, Commissioner. Disaster Management

Impact of Cyclone Phailin on Ganjam district

 

Three deaths in Ganjam (NDTV) due to tree falling. Unclear if these are the same as yesterday or new ones being reported. Also, the numbers vary between 2 (The Hindu) and 5 (PTI) depending on publication. ZeeNews reported 7, which seems to be confirmed by Jay Panda's tweet.

Extensive damage to crops is being reported (NDTV).

Extensive damage to electrical grid, including damage to 9 electrical towers means it will take 4-7 days to restore electricity in Ganjam.

Impact of Cyclone Phailin on Berhampur district

Berhampur University Building collapsed last night soon after Cyclone hit. (Multiple sources)

Debris, trees down, electric infrastructure, some flooding have been reported. (NDTV)

Clearing felled trees has started already in some places. (local tweet)

Section of NH5 flooded (ANI)

Impact of Cyclone Phailin on Vizag

Wall collapsed at No.11 Jetty at Vizag harbour (also yesterday). (Local news)

Image: The Hindu
Image: The Hindu

Impact of Cyclone Phailin in Puri

Fishermen missing in Cyclone Phailin

18 fishermen reported stranded off Paradip coast - current status is unclear. Update: They have been found and rescued.

Cargo vessel MV Bingo from West Bengal is out of communications at sea. Last seen on the east of Sagar. Presumed sunk. Search on for missing crew members. Update: Missing crew has been located. No casualties.

This and other updates on Cyclone Phailin would not have been possible without the cooperation of a dedicated group of volunteers making information more accessible. Special thanks to @tw_bhav for doing a lot of the heavy lifting of sifting through information, @scorpiusmaximus for regular updates and detailed information as some familiar with the region and countless others.

With every crisis comes a plague of those profiting from it. Cyclone Phailin is devastating in its proportions and the damage it leaves behind. It is important to channel your aid through reliable organizations so that it reaches people on the ground rather than getting siphoned off or scammed.

I will confirm and update more sources as they announce their appeals. Scroll down for list of suggested necessities to send.

Here are several ways you can help that are fairly trustworthy. Include your name and address if you want IT exemption.

  1. The Prime Minister's national relief fund. If you have netbanking, you ought to be able to use it to securely donate to PMNRF - Prime Minister's National Relief Fund. Many banks will offer links to donate funds for crisis relief after natural disasters like the Cyclone Phailin later. Or you can snail mail a cheque or demand draft in the name of "Prime Minister's National Relief Fund" and send to Prime Minister's Office, South Block, New Delhi - 110011
  2. Chief Minister's Relief Fund Andhra Pradesh: You can Donate Online. Here are the instructions for doing wire/telegraphic transfers of your donations from outside India. The account details for the wire transfers should also work for depositing cheques - HDFC Bank Ltd, MUMBAI. Acct no : 0212320004718. Account name : The Chief Minister Relief Fund , Govt of AP.
  3. Chief Minister's Relief Fund for Odisha: Donate to “CHIEF MINISTER’S RELIEF FUND, ORISSA” (CMRF) by CHEQUE/DEMAND DRAFT payable at Bhubaneswar. All contributions to ORISSA CMRF may be sent to Joint Secretary to Government, GA (CMRF) Department, Orissa Secretariat, Bhubaneswar- 751001,Orissa. Donors can also remit through their bank directly to SB A/C No.10566116417 of State Bank of India, Forest Park Branch, Bhubaneswar, Orissa. They also have an online page for donations, which isn't working. I'll update when they fix it.
  4. Goonj.org is a website that works for rescue and relief after natural disasters. They accept aid in the form of money, clothing as well as other material contributions that can be put to good use by survivors. They have an extensive network where you can drop material contributions for relief at a location convenient to you and both Indians and foreigners can also donate online. You can volunteer for them where you live and organize collections of donations to facilitate greater aid. If you can organize truckloads from your locality, they will pick them up.
  5. Doctors For You run medical camps after disasters. Yes Bank A/C No: 000190300000030 Branch: Yes Bank, Worli branch, Mumbai IFSC Code: YESB0000001

Doctors For You do good work, and you should plan on donating to them, but not just yet. Let them announce their aid and make appeals first.

Here are some suggested items for donating:

  • Tarpaulin sheets, plastic sheets and other waterproof shelter materials. This is a biggie. Many homes are destroyed, even more have roofs blown off that will need to be covered immediately to protect inside of house from decaying in the rain as well.
  • Food: Vast quantities of dry snacks that can be distributed to those in shelters.
  • Essential medicines, first aid supplies, sanitary napkins.
  • MILK powder. Loads of kids living in shelters will need milk.
  • I would say clothes, but clothes are the most common gift and most abused. Give only practical clothes that rural people will wear daily and give clothes that are in GOOD CONDITION. There is no point spending money on transporting worn down or otherwise unwearable clothes that far, at cost that could be spent on things that can be used.
  • Blankets, bedsheets, karrimats/chatais/groundsheets.
  • Utensils - think basic, versatile pots, pans, plates, glasses, laddles and such. This is no place for the forgotten crockery from your wedding. Larger ones will be better than tiny ones. Think 2 liter volume and above for pots.
  • Anything else that is useful and practical. Make suggestions in comments, and I can put these up here. Check the Goonj website and aid requests on social media. There may be updates on specific needs.

Start sending! Help to rehabilitate lakhs of people will be needed rapidly now.

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Note 2: For newer updates see Cyclone Phailin toll, relief and other information and information to donate or send aid.

Note: This page tracks resources. For monitoring breaking news from Cyclone Phailin, see the page for news updates about Cyclone Phailin. This page will be updated constantly. Please keep checking. Also check map of shelters, hospitals and control rooms.

Cyclone Phailin is a massive cyclone building in the Bay of Bengal and expected to hit India's east coast by tomorrow evening. Its severity has been guaged as 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being worst) and is expected to rise to 5 by the time it hits landfall. The cyclone is expected to affect Andhra Pradesh, Odisha (Orissa) and Madhya Pradesh. This page aims to collect all relevant information. Feel free to use the comments to add resources or request resources.

  • Over 500,000 evacuated in India via NDMA as of 5:00pm on 12th October
  • Over 35,000,000 in the path of Phailin
  • 20+ foot storm surge expected
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated current significant wave height within Phailin ~56 ft.
  • All trains between Howrah and Vishakhapatanam have been cancelled as a precautionary measure. 56 trains have been canceled,16 diverted&4-5 trains partially terminated.
  • All flights to Odisha have been stopped, airports have been shut down
  • Doctors for Seva has two medical teams on standby in Hyderabad and Chattisgarh for Cyclone Phailin relief work.
  • At its peak, Cyclone #Phailin tied both the 1999 Cyclone & 2013's Typhoon #Usagi: Earth's strongest storm this year. http://t.co/o20mCoUN1M via @EricHolthaus

[satellite]

Helplines for Cyclone Phailin

Now there is a page with mapped helplines information

Control Room Contacts

Also Contact page for APEPDCL has details on various offices and customer service numbers.

West Godavari DistrictControl Rooms
Eluru Collectorate08812-230617
Eluru RDO08812-232044
Narsapuram RDO08814-276699
Kovvur RDO08813-231488
Jangareddygudem RDO08821-223660
Power Supply Control Rooms
Eluru Circle Office08812-231287/288920
Eluru Div Office08812-252150/232151
Nidadavolu Div Office08813-221093/221211
Bhimavaram Div Office08816-223464/228628
Tadepalligudem Div Office08818-221357/220777
Jangareddygudem Div office08821-225844/226864
Technical DEO, Eluru Circle94408 12703
Operations DEO, Eluru Circle94408 12704
Technical EO, Eluru Circle94906 10137
Operations DEO, Nidadavolu94408 12706
Technical EO, Nidadavolu94906 10142
Operations DEO, Bhimavaram94408 12707
Technical EO, Bhimavaram94906 10143
Operations EO, Tadepalligudem94408 12705
Technical EO, Bhimavaram94906 10140
Operations EO, Jangareddygudem94910 49797
Technical EO, Jangareddygudem94910 30712

East Coast Railway Helplines

East Coast Railway Helplines Vizag-0891-2505793, 08935-249672, Vizianagaram-08922-225510, Srikakulam-08942- 28722 Naupada-08945-249728, Rayagada-06856-6222407, Koraput-06852-251802

Shelters

List of cyclone shelters in Andhra Pradesh http://disastermanagement.ap.gov.in/website/shelters.htm

Shelters
OdishaTotal number: 10,042
Kendrapara:328
Jajpur:255
Jagatisnghpur:593
AndhraIcchapuram, Sompeta, Palasa,Etcherla, Kaviti mandals of Srikakulam dist: Total 32 shelters

How to prepare for a cyclone

https://aamjanata.com/wp-content/uploads/cyclonephailin-131011031453-phpapp02.pdf Presentation by Archana Kulshrestha

Track Cyclone Phailin

Sources of updates closest to ground zero

StandBy Task Force, OpenCrisis, Info4Disasters, HOT, ERCIS, EMA, CrisisMappersUK have teamed up?https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jAWzKP_Fhs5rzxzTChjvaDWNH319aHIzPywr327G0Xs/edit

Information on shelters, media, medical centers etc is at: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AppW8Gi1zVHtdFFHSGViaEY5Y1NsYi1lc1NTTExxT1E&usp=drive_web#gid=0