Reality Simplified – Kashmir

After so many comments and wall posts I decided to give a final word as a layman, I’m not any politician nor any party worker I’m just a Patriotic person who just can’t stand a word if it is against my Mother India..

Last few weeks I lost many of my friends and many said that I had gone mad with Patriotism I replied if being in love with your nation makes u mad then I want mad forever…. Reading comments of traitors who are living on INDIAN soil and then shouting out words of freedom for kashmir. I hope this note helps them to see the picture more clearly…

On the issue of Azadi for kashmir, let’s say that a premise be made wherein it is decided to allow plebiscite in J&K. Who makes it is important

  1. India and Pakistan would need to agree to de-militarize both divides of Jammu & kashmir and replace it with UN peacekeeping forces. Which means leave their positions won or lost at the cost of bloody wars and skirmishes, remove all ordinance, remove personnel from strategic locations, vacate their headquarters, permanent war equipment etc etc at a huge loss to their resources.
    India could maybe withstand the economic brunt of this mammoth exercise, what about pakistan, can they inspite of their sorry state of economics? What kind of a pressure would make them withdraw from their territorial domains? Who will apply the pressure? Indian and pakistan governments? Kashmiri people? (55% of the J&K population?)USA? EU? who?
  2. It can be safely estimated that 45% of the Hindu, Buddhist and Christian population will vote for India. No doubts about that. The kashmir valley will totally vote azadi, but across the banihal tunnel, there are Muslims in the districts of Poonch, Rajouri and Doda, and Kathua who may opt for India. You can never be sure. Anyways, let’s assume that theplebiscite is in favor of azadi. How would you divide J&K with about 50% spread out in different areas voting for India? Or would Kashmir azadi settle for holding 45% Hindus and 4% Muslims who vote for India against their wishes?
  3. Let’s talk about infrastructure and economics. Let’s not go into details. Let’s talk about basics.
    Which army is going to ensure the territorial integrity of independent kashmir? Pakistani, Indian or Nato forces who are fighting terror in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other places? (UN forces are dependant of NATO forces you know, since they don’t have regular armies) And if you get NATO there with the usual components from the US, UK, Germany etc., there will surely be the Taliban’s and al-Qaida, and more shifting fro Afghanistan and elsewhere. Pakistan would not mind that as long as they give free access to them to cross over into independent kashmir as long as they don’t foment terror in their frontiers. How long will it take independent kashmir to raise its own army? Their Police? Will it again have to depend on India for goodies? From which resources will they get the hardware and technology? Who will finance them, and at what cost? Will it follow that kashmir becomes a hot spot for international exploitation. Will it in any way change the basic ethos of ‘kashmiriat’. Will it convert kashmir yet again into an existence of blurred nationality?

Let’s talk about technological infrastructure, Roads, power generation, communication, Industry, Railways, and Airports. So far all of them, and development were with compliments from the govt of India, and many of them run and managed by personnel from India with technology imported from India without a cost. How will Independent kashmir gather resources to give its people the quality of life existing till now? Are you sure that tourism industry will be able to get kashmir its financial resources when it is known that the State had to desperately depend on huge resources from India even when tourism and other fruit trade in kashmir was at its peak? I have read somewhere in this blog about that kashmir has enough power generation capabilities to cater to a good economy. It is true if the whole of J&K is taken as azad, which will probably never be the case. Many of the power generation resources fall across the tunnel, and seem impossible that India will forego either the territory or resource when it comes to the finals. Therefore who do you think will be able to exert that much pressure on India to let go of these natural resources?

The above were only some of the contentions that I do strongly feel about. I believe it is always better to look the devil in its face and then take it on. It is better to have clarity of perception before a decision.

Facts & Figures: —

Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) is not a state where only Kashmiri Muslims live. It is a multi-ethnic, multi-religious state with 64% Muslims, 33% Hindus, and 3% Buddhists, Sikhs, Christians and others. There are three distinct geographical regions – Ladakh (with 58% of the area, and 3% of the population), Jammu (26% area, 45% population) and Kashmir (16% area, 52% population: of which over 90 % of the region’s minorities, i.e. 3% of the state’s total population have been driven out).

Fifteen per cent of the state’s Muslims live in the provinces of Jammu and Ladakh . They are non-Kashmiris, and by and large, they stand behind J&K’s association with India. (There are a few small exceptions in some towns of Doda district). Of the state’s 49% who reside in the Kashmir province, about 13% are Shia Muslims. Shia Muslims do not wish to have anything to do with Sunni-dominated Pakistan, knowing full well the fate that awaits them there. This is especially true of the Shias of Kargil who know of the poverty and degradation experienced by their ethnic siblings in Baltistan, a part of Pakistan occupied Kashmir referred to as the “Northern Areas”. 14% of the people in Kashmir province are the pastoral nomadic Gujar and Bakarwal people. They are strong supporters of association with India and have demonstrated this by organizing Militancy Mukhalif Morcha (Anti-Militancy Front) to assist the security forces in surveillance of terrorist activity. As far as non-Muslim groups are concerned there is no reason for them to even think about living outside multi-religious and secular India.

The support for secession in Jammu & Kashmir is thus largely limited to the non-pastoral Sunni Muslim population of the Kashmir Valley who constitute 22% of the state’s population, (or about 1.9 million people). This segment of the population dominates the politics of the state. The reason that many believe separatism to be a widespread sentiment in J&K is because this dominant section has succeeded in completely drowning out all other voices in the state, and has the ability to cripple the normal functioning of the society in Kashmir province; either by inaction or insufficient action against Pakistani infiltration and terror or, worst still, by sabotage. It is this section of the state’s population that receives all the attention, understandably so from Pakistan and the imperialist nations, but also from the Indian press.

Since the concept of self-determination must be applied to each of Jammu & Kashmir’s unique population groups, there can be no equation of self-determination with secession. If, however, the undivided state (including the Pakistan occupied regions of Kashmir which Pakistan refers to s “Azad” Kashmir & “Northern Areas”) were to have a referendum under truly neutral supervision, and the people were given three options – join India, join Pakistan or be independent — the results might be shocking to votaries of secession. The majority could very well go with India, because the separatists will split the vote between pro-Pakistan and pro-independence groups. Sayyed Ali Gilani, Jammu & Kashmir’s Jamaat-e-Islami leader, opposes the option of independence precisely because he is afraid that this vote may split in India’s favor.
On the other hand, if the people of the state are given all three choices – join India or join Pakistan or have complete independence – the majority vote could still go in India’s favor. Of the 16.6 (Azaad kashmir +J&K) million people in the undivided state, J&K’s population is 12 million (2011), Kashmir’s is 7million and “Northern Areas” is 4.6 million. If 3.5 million from J&K and all of Kashmir and “Northern Areas” vote for Pakistan, it still gives India a vote of 7.9 million and leaves Azaadi “Independent Kashmir” with 5.2 million votes!

 

Sorry For Shattering your Dreams!!

 

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