Aam Aadmi Party prospects rising. And as Aam Aadmi Party prospects rises, Aam Aadmi Party astrology is becoming a political cottage industry. As you know, I moonlight as an astrologer when the whim hits me. Here are the popular predictions for Aam Aadmi Party in 2014.
Aam Aadmi Party is all set to grow
My hunch is that the Aam Aadmi Party is going to continue its meteoric rise all through 2014, bringing hope and transforming politics forever. The dramatic impact, however will be subdued in some ways, while evolving to break into new terrain as it encounters populations beyond the metros.
Challenges to Aam Aadmi Party
Challenges to Aam Aadmi Party will also be on an increase. These challenges will mostly come from state and local parties. Congress and BJP will continue to find it difficult to form a coherent response to the Aam Aadmi Party.
Aam Aadmi Party political affiliations
This year will see Aam Aadmi Party forced to evaluate local political entities on their own merit and affiliate with the ones they can respect (particularly if they cannot convince well entrenched and liked parties to merge). This will lead to further turmoil and refinement in AAP's stands on alliances and giving and taking support.
New Influences in Aam Aadmi Party
The year 2014 will be a year of expansion, as well as a year of learning to incorporate new influences without losing signature identity. New influences will be mainly of two kinds. The first will be regional, where the party absorbs the flavor of each region of India. The second will be political, where we will see several politicians quitting their parties to join AAP. Much of it may be driven by idealism, but the possibility cannot be denied of a "sau chuhe khake billi chali haj ko" kind of migration, were politicians with dubious credibility seek to join to avoid a harsher fate.
Road blocks and pitfalls on policy
While state elections were contested mainly on the basis of urgent demands of the people, AAP's entry to the National stage will bring in new traps for them to navigate. It will no longer be enough to procure a wish list from people and adapt it into a manifesto to deliver. Many things a National party will be expected to have policy stands on will not appear on wish lists of people, but they will impact the nation and livelihoods of those in it. This year will also be the time when AAP is faced with problems with no clear right and wrong sides, or each side being right in its own way, and it will be a challenge for a party that listens to everyone to draw a line. These will also be subjects where the AAP tendency to make absolute declarations will be counterproductive if allowed to continue. For example, issues like Kashmir, Telangana, women's rights and related laws in particular, Section 377, FDI in retail...
Threats to AAP credibility
Within the first quarter of 2014, I predict that AAP will be forced to break promises they have made. Not because the Aam Aadmi Party is corrupt, but because the promises were expressed in such absolute terms and specific detail, that the larger principle would be harmed by delivering "to the letter". This will naturally be pounced on by the BJP as well as Congress. However, unless other factors change, BJP and Congress criticizing AAP will continue to result in increased support for AAP. This may not be the case with regional parties, and AAP will do well to examine the language of their public commitments and learn to convey their core issue without trapping themselves with their own words.
Women will save the day
Focus on women's rights is likely to increase all through 2014 and AAP's focus on empowering women, as well as the fact that the only MLAs in Delhi are from the Party will lend weight to their requests for women's participation, which in turn will add to their popularity. This may be at some threat if there is a lack of visible strong women in regional chapters of AAP - in which case, it will be an opportunity unnecessarily lost. The poor ratio of women candidates in Delhi (though the only 3 to win were from AAP) will be unlikely to be appreciated and there will be an expectation of better "respect and focus" for women, which will be inevitably measured in candidates.
Beware of broken promises
Promises made and delivered or broken will make or break the party in the future. Just as the immediate series of actions aimed at delivering manifesto promises reinforced the image of AAP as a party to be depended on, there will be an expectation nationwide. Competing parties will bring up unfulfilled promises at inopportune times, and this is a pitfall Aam Aadmi Party needs to avoid very deliberately. Appointing LGBT people to posts in the party, appointing a PIO for AAP to be RTI compliant, and such promises made outside formal documents will also remain in people's minds and impact the reception the party gets nationwide. They will be leveraged by regional parties who are not threatened by the RTI (official order applies to 6 National Parties only) and are thus free to point out AAP's words at the time of the Save RTI debates, and its actions when the subject died out. Yep, so this is the Aam Aadmi Party Astrology. My predictions for Aam Aadmi Party in 2014.
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